Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 18:00
Full timeOmonia Nicosia 4:1 Enosis Neon Ypsona FC
Omonia Nicosia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 67%. They won 4–1.
The model against the result
- Omonia Nicosia
- 67% What happened
- Draw
- 22%
- Enosis Neon Ypsona FC
- 10%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
2.11 xG created 1.04 xGA
- W 2.05 created, 1.91 conceded against Pafos FC
- D 2.60 created, 0.84 conceded against AEK Larnaca
- W 1.57 created, 0.86 conceded against APOEL Nicosia
- D 2.96 created, 0.95 conceded against Omonia Aradippou
- W 2.20 created, 1.28 conceded against Aris Limassol
- D 1.30 created, 0.42 conceded against Apollon Limassol
1.31 xG created 1.43 xGA
- D 1.13 created, 1.84 conceded against AEL Limassol
- L 1.47 created, 3.25 conceded against Anorthosis Famagusta
- D 1.16 created, 0.36 conceded against Enosis Neon Paralimniou
- L 1.78 created, 0.87 conceded against ALS Omonia
- L 1.35 created, 0.94 conceded against Omonia Aradippou
- L 0.96 created, 1.31 conceded against Aris Limassol
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged1 won3 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 6.50 | +45.9% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 2.38 | +23.7% | Won |
| Enosis Neon Ypsona FC to win | 12.00 | +23.3% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.38 | +6.1% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omonia Nicosia | 67.3% | 78.1% | −10.8 pp | 1.49 |
| Draw | 22.5% | 14.2% | +8.2 pp | 4.45 |
| Enosis Neon Ypsona FC | 10.3% | 7.7% | +2.6 pp | 9.74 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 52.1% | 39.2% | +12.9 pp | 1.92 |
| Both teams not to score | 47.9% | 60.8% | −12.9 pp | 2.09 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.1% | 79.4% | +1.7 pp | 1.23 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18.9% | 20.6% | −1.7 pp | 5.30 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.3% | 60.8% | −5.4 pp | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.7% | 39.2% | +5.4 pp | 2.24 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Omonia Nicosia sample
- 20 matches
- Enosis Neon Ypsona FC sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.