Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 13:00
Full timeFC Hradec Králové 0:2 FK Teplice
FC Hradec Králové were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. FK Teplice won 2–0.
The model against the result
- FC Hradec Králové
- 44%
- Draw
- 31%
- FK Teplice
- 25% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.05 xG created 1.23 xGA
- W 2.39 created, 0.80 conceded against Baník Ostrava
- L 0.36 created, 2.19 conceded against FC Slovan Liberec
- L 0.53 created, 1.48 conceded against FC Zbrojovka Brno
- W 1.14 created, 1.18 conceded against AC Sparta Praha
- D 0.92 created, 0.21 conceded against Viktoria Plzeň
- W 0.96 created, 1.54 conceded against FC Zlín
1.04 xG created 1.44 xGA
- D 1.47 created, 2.49 conceded against Viktoria Plzeň
- L 0.82 created, 2.12 conceded against AC Sparta Praha
- L 0.82 created, 0.69 conceded against FC Zbrojovka Brno
- W 0.79 created, 1.15 conceded against FK Jablonec
- W 1.35 created, 0.96 conceded against FC Zlín
- L 1.00 created, 1.21 conceded against SK Slavia Praha
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Teplice to win | 4.50 | +11.9% | Won |
| Draw | 3.40 | +4.4% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | +1.3% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Hradec Králové | 44.4% | 52.9% | −8.4 pp | 2.25 |
| Draw | 30.7% | 26.9% | +3.8 pp | 3.26 |
| FK Teplice | 24.9% | 20.3% | +4.6 pp | 4.02 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | 52.0% | +4.3 pp | 1.78 |
| Both teams not to score | 43.7% | 48.0% | −4.3 pp | 2.29 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.1% | 73.1% | +3.0 pp | 1.31 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23.9% | 26.9% | −3.0 pp | 4.18 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.4% | 48.7% | −1.3 pp | 2.11 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.6% | 51.3% | +1.3 pp | 1.90 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Hradec Králové sample
- 20 matches
- FK Teplice sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.