SK Sigma Olomouc 0:3 AC Sparta Praha: xG & match report · Czech First League

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 15:00

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Match report · Czech First League

SK Sigma Olomouc Home 0.86 xG · 12 shots

AC Sparta Praha Away 1.88 xG · 22 shots

03 The scoreline reflected the chances

SK Sigma Olomouc were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. AC Sparta Praha won 3–0. The biggest difference was AC Sparta Praha's attack: 1.88 xG against 1.18 projected (+0.70). SK Sigma Olomouc produced 0.86 xG against 1.35 projected (−0.49).

Goals

25' John Mercado AC Sparta Praha · 0.02 xG chance 0–1
67' Marko Soldo (o.g.) AC Sparta Praha · 0.10 xG chance 0–2
88' Ebrima Singhateh AC Sparta Praha · 0.24 xG chance 0–3

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

SK Sigma Olomouc: 39%
Draw: 31%
AC Sparta Praha: 30% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

SK Sigma Olomouc 1.35 0.86 -0.49

AC Sparta Praha 1.18 1.88 +0.70

AC Sparta Praha produced 0.70 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

SK Sigma Olomouc AC Sparta Praha

Shots: 12; 22
On target: 4; 6
Inside the box: 2; 15
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.09
Open play xG: 0.83; 1.43
Set-piece xG: 0.06; 0.60
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.86 for SK Sigma Olomouc and 2.01 for AC Sparta Praha.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

34 shots · 2.92 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

SK Sigma Olomouc
AC Sparta Praha
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

SK Sigma Olomouc

1.22 xG created 1.08 xGA

W 0.83 created, 1.40 conceded against SK Líšeň
W 2.02 created, 1.04 conceded against 1. FC Slovácko
W 1.48 created, 1.15 conceded against FK Pardubice
L 0.63 created, 0.24 conceded against Baník Ostrava
W 1.78 created, 0.42 conceded against Bohemians Praha 1905
W 0.60 created, 2.25 conceded against Viktoria Plzeň

AC Sparta Praha

1.59 xG created 1.21 xGA

L 0.77 created, 1.49 conceded against Mladá Boleslav
W 2.12 created, 0.82 conceded against FK Teplice
W 1.78 created, 1.21 conceded against SK Líšeň
L 2.34 created, 1.83 conceded against SK Slavia Praha
L 1.18 created, 1.14 conceded against FC Hradec Králové
W 1.32 created, 0.79 conceded against FK Jablonec

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

SK Sigma Olomouc: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged0 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on SK Sigma Olomouc against AC Sparta Praha before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
AC Sparta Praha not to score	4.33	+21.4%	Lost
AC Sparta Praha at most 1 goal	1.80	+20.0%	Lost
SK Sigma Olomouc to win	3.10	+19.8%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.08	+9.4%	Lost
Draw	3.40	+6.7%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
SK Sigma Olomouc	38.6%	29.5%	+9.1 pp	2.59
Draw	31.4%	26.9%	+4.5 pp	3.19
AC Sparta Praha	30.0%	43.6%	−13.6 pp	3.34

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
SK Sigma Olomouc to score	76.8%	72.3%	+4.4 pp	1.30
SK Sigma Olomouc not to score	23.2%	27.7%	−4.4 pp	4.30
AC Sparta Praha to score	72.0%	78.3%	−6.3 pp	1.39
AC Sparta Praha not to score	28.0%	21.7%	+6.3 pp	3.57
Both teams to score	57.1%	57.7%	−0.6 pp	1.75
Both teams not to score	42.9%	42.3%	+0.6 pp	2.33
SK Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals	39.9%	37.5%	+2.4 pp	2.50
SK Sigma Olomouc at most 1 goal	60.1%	62.5%	−2.4 pp	1.67
AC Sparta Praha 2+ goals	33.3%	48.5%	−15.2 pp	3.00
AC Sparta Praha at most 1 goal	66.7%	51.5%	+15.2 pp	1.50
Over 1.5 goals	76.0%	76.6%	−0.6 pp	1.31
Under 1.5 goals	24.0%	23.4%	+0.6 pp	4.18
Over 2.5 goals	47.3%	54.6%	−7.3 pp	2.11
Under 2.5 goals	52.7%	45.4%	+7.3 pp	1.90

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
SK Sigma Olomouc sample: 20 matches
AC Sparta Praha sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.