Viktoria Plzeň 2:3 SK Sigma Olomouc: xG & match report · Czech First League

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 15:00

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Match report · Czech First League

Viktoria Plzeň Home 2.25 xG · 22 shots

SK Sigma Olomouc Away 0.60 xG · 5 shots

23 The result went against the chances

Viktoria Plzeň were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. SK Sigma Olomouc won 3–2. The biggest difference was Viktoria Plzeň's attack: 2.25 xG against 1.47 projected (+0.78). SK Sigma Olomouc produced 0.60 xG against 1.01 projected (−0.41).

Goals

16' Abubakar Ghali SK Sigma Olomouc · 0.15 xG chance 0–1
34' Abdoulaye Sylla (o.g.) Viktoria Plzeň · 0.10 xG chance 1–1
41' David Tkáč SK Sigma Olomouc · 0.06 xG chance 1–2
52' Václav Sejk SK Sigma Olomouc · 0.32 xG chance 1–3
85' Baboucarr Faal Viktoria Plzeň · 0.05 xG chance 2–3

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Viktoria Plzeň: 46%
Draw: 31%
SK Sigma Olomouc: 23% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Viktoria Plzeň 1.47 2.25 +0.78

SK Sigma Olomouc 1.01 0.60 -0.41

Viktoria Plzeň produced 0.78 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Viktoria Plzeň SK Sigma Olomouc

Shots: 22; 5
On target: 4; 4
Inside the box: 14; 5
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.12
Open play xG: 0.62; 0.62
Set-piece xG: 0.93; 0.00
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.56 for Viktoria Plzeň and 0.60 for SK Sigma Olomouc.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

27 shots · 2.99 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Viktoria Plzeň
SK Sigma Olomouc
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Viktoria Plzeň

1.45 xG created 0.83 xGA

D 0.80 created, 0.65 conceded against FC Zbrojovka Brno
D 2.49 created, 1.47 conceded against FK Teplice
W 2.22 created, 1.06 conceded against FC Zlín
D 1.28 created, 0.41 conceded against 1. FC Slovácko
W 1.70 created, 0.44 conceded against SK Líšeň
D 0.21 created, 0.92 conceded against FC Hradec Králové

SK Sigma Olomouc

1.54 xG created 0.90 xGA

D 2.48 created, 1.17 conceded against Mladá Boleslav
W 0.83 created, 1.40 conceded against SK Líšeň
W 2.02 created, 1.04 conceded against 1. FC Slovácko
W 1.48 created, 1.15 conceded against FK Pardubice
L 0.63 created, 0.24 conceded against Baník Ostrava
W 1.78 created, 0.42 conceded against Bohemians Praha 1905

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Viktoria Plzeň: 2 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged2 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Viktoria Plzeň against SK Sigma Olomouc before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.35	+27.0%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	5.00	+25.1%	Lost
Viktoria Plzeň not to score	6.00	+22.2%	Lost
Draw	3.90	+19.4%	Lost
Viktoria Plzeň at most 1 goal	2.10	+16.5%	Lost
SK Sigma Olomouc to win	5.00	+14.7%	Won
SK Sigma Olomouc to score	1.53	+1.5%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Viktoria Plzeň	46.5%	58.6%	−12.1 pp	2.15
Draw	30.6%	23.3%	+7.3 pp	3.27
SK Sigma Olomouc	22.9%	18.2%	+4.8 pp	4.36

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Viktoria Plzeň to score	79.6%	84.2%	−4.6 pp	1.26
Viktoria Plzeň not to score	20.4%	15.8%	+4.6 pp	4.91
SK Sigma Olomouc to score	66.2%	60.8%	+5.4 pp	1.51
SK Sigma Olomouc not to score	33.8%	39.2%	−5.4 pp	2.96
Both teams to score	54.5%	53.3%	+1.2 pp	1.83
Both teams not to score	45.5%	46.7%	−1.2 pp	2.20
Viktoria Plzeň 2+ goals	44.5%	55.7%	−11.2 pp	2.25
Viktoria Plzeň at most 1 goal	55.5%	44.3%	+11.2 pp	1.80
SK Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals	26.6%	26.9%	−0.3 pp	3.77
SK Sigma Olomouc at most 1 goal	73.4%	73.1%	+0.3 pp	1.36
Over 1.5 goals	75.0%	81.1%	−6.1 pp	1.33
Under 1.5 goals	25.0%	18.9%	+6.1 pp	4.00
Over 2.5 goals	46.0%	59.9%	−14.0 pp	2.18
Under 2.5 goals	54.0%	40.1%	+14.0 pp	1.85

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Viktoria Plzeň sample: 20 matches
SK Sigma Olomouc sample: 20 matches
Computed: 5 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.