Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 18:00
20d 18h to kick-offViktoria Plzeň – FK Pardubice
Model updated 5 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Viktoria Plzeň
- 52%
- Draw
- 29%
- FK Pardubice
- 18%
| Viktoria Plzeň | Draw | FK Pardubice | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.91 | 3.43 | 5.42 |
- Total goals
- 2.50
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Viktoria Plzeň
52% Viktoria Plzeň to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 7th
- Viktoria Plzeň attack v FK Pardubice defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 9th
- Viktoria Plzeň defence v FK Pardubice attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.53 vs +0.35
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.59 – 0.91
- Viktoria Plzeň v FK Pardubice
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Viktoria Plzeň | FK Pardubice |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.43 · 5th | 1.34 · 8th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.10 · 5th | 1.20 · 6th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.32 · 4th | +0.14 · 6th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.61 · 4th | 1.46 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.53 | +0.35 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- Viktoria Plzeň clean sheet
- 37%
- Viktoria Plzeň 2+ goals
- 49%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.0%
- 2:1
- 11.3%
- 1:0
- 10.7%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Viktoria Plzeň sample
- 20 matches
- FK Pardubice sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Viktoria Plzeň
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · FK Pardubice
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.