Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 12:15
14d 10h to kick-offGórnik Zabrze – Piast Gliwice
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Górnik Zabrze
- 49%
- Draw
- 30%
- Piast Gliwice
- 21%
| Górnik Zabrze | Draw | Piast Gliwice | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.05 | 3.29 | 4.80 |
- Total goals
- 2.45
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Górnik Zabrze
49% Górnik Zabrze to win
- Attack
- 9th vs 8th
- Górnik Zabrze attack v Piast Gliwice defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 13th
- Górnik Zabrze defence v Piast Gliwice attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.12 vs -0.27
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.50 – 0.95
- Górnik Zabrze v Piast Gliwice
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Górnik Zabrze | Piast Gliwice |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.58 · 5th | 1.22 · 18th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.05 · 2nd | 1.87 · 15th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.53 · 3rd | -0.65 · 17th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.79 · 3rd | 0.96 · 17th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.12 | -0.27 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- Górnik Zabrze clean sheet
- 36%
- Górnik Zabrze 2+ goals
- 46%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.8%
- 2:1
- 11.1%
- 1:0
- 10.6%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Górnik Zabrze sample
- 20 matches
- Piast Gliwice sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Górnik Zabrze
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Piast Gliwice
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.