Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 20:15
6d 20h to kick-offJagiellonia Białystok – Górnik Zabrze
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Jagiellonia Białystok
- 30%
- Draw
- 32%
- Górnik Zabrze
- 38%
| Jagiellonia Białystok | Draw | Górnik Zabrze | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.33 | 3.10 | 2.65 |
- Total goals
- 2.40
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score
- 54%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 3 outcomes.
-
Jagiellonia Białystok
- Model
- 30.0%
- Market, margin removed
- 36.3%
- Probability gap
- −6.3 pp
- Edge
- −24.9%
- Fair odds
- 3.33
- Market odds
- 2.50 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.50
- Bookmaker margin
- 10.2%
-
Draw
- Model
- 32.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 26.7%
- Probability gap
- +5.5 pp
- Edge
- +9.5%
- Fair odds
- 3.10
- Market odds
- 3.40 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.26
- Bookmaker margin
- 10.2%
-
Górnik Zabrze
- Model
- 37.8%
- Market, margin removed
- 37.0%
- Probability gap
- +0.7 pp
- Edge
- −7.5%
- Fair odds
- 2.65
- Market odds
- 2.45 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.78
- Bookmaker margin
- 10.2%
Outcomes with value
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Górnik Zabrze
38% Górnik Zabrze to win
- Attack
- 9th vs 10th
- Górnik Zabrze attack v Jagiellonia Białystok defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 12th
- Górnik Zabrze defence v Jagiellonia Białystok attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.12 vs +0.09
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.13 – 1.28
- Jagiellonia Białystok v Górnik Zabrze
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Jagiellonia Białystok | Górnik Zabrze |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.50 · 10th | (better) 1.58 · 5th |
| xGA / match | 1.52 · 9th | (better) 1.05 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | -0.03 · 8th | (better) +0.53 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 1.23 · 14th | (better) 1.79 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.09 | (better) +1.12 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- Górnik Zabrze clean sheet
- 30%
- Górnik Zabrze 2+ goals
- 37%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score: no
- 46%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.5%
- 1:2
- 9.7%
- 0:0
- 9.4%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Jagiellonia Białystok sample
- 20 matches
- Górnik Zabrze sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Jagiellonia Białystok
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Górnik Zabrze
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.