Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 20:15
Full timeLech Poznań 5:1 Radomiak Radom
Lech Poznań were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 63%. They won 5–1. The biggest difference was Lech Poznań's attack: 3.98 xG against 2.06 projected (+1.92).
Goals
- 1' Guilherme Luiz Radomiak Radom · 0.21 xG chance 0–1
- 3' Pablo Rodríguez Lech Poznań · 0.04 xG chance 1–1
- 9' Patrik Wålemark Lech Poznań · 0.26 xG chance 2–1
- 41' Allahyar Sayyadmanesh Lech Poznań · 0.99 xG chance 3–1
- 51' Patrik Wålemark Lech Poznań · 0.10 xG chance 4–1
- 67' Pablo Rodríguez Lech Poznań · 0.40 xG chance 5–1
The model against the result
- Lech Poznań
- 63% What happened
- Draw
- 24%
- Radomiak Radom
- 14%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Lech Poznań produced 1.92 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 26
- 12
- On target
- 8
- 5
- Inside the box
- 15
- 9
- xG per shot
- 0.16
- 0.08
- Open play xG
- 4.05
- 0.87
- Set-piece xG
- 0.03
- 0.12
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 4.04 for Lech Poznań and 0.99 for Radomiak Radom.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
38 shots · 5.07 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Lech Poznań
- Radomiak Radom
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.97 xG created 0.88 xGA
- W 1.69 created, 0.99 conceded against Wieczysta Kraków
- W 3.12 created, 1.06 conceded against Piast Gliwice
- W 1.89 created, 0.80 conceded against Widzew Łódź
- W 1.78 created, 0.48 conceded against Jagiellonia Białystok
- W 2.84 created, 0.40 conceded against Raków Częstochowa
- L 0.50 created, 1.53 conceded against Górnik Zabrze
1.55 xG created 1.77 xGA
- L 2.24 created, 2.28 conceded against Górnik Zabrze
- L 0.38 created, 1.68 conceded against Legia Warszawa
- D 0.78 created, 1.27 conceded against Zagłębie Lubin
- W 1.89 created, 2.02 conceded against Cracovia
- D 1.69 created, 1.59 conceded against Widzew Łódź
- L 2.33 created, 1.79 conceded against Piast Gliwice
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged1 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.10 | +24.3% | Lost |
| Draw | 5.25 | +23.6% | Lost |
| Radomiak Radom to win | 8.00 | +10.2% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 6.50 | +3.6% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | +3.4% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznań | 62.7% | 71.4% | −8.7 pp | 1.60 |
| Draw | 23.5% | 17.3% | +6.3 pp | 4.25 |
| Radomiak Radom | 13.8% | 11.3% | +2.4 pp | 7.26 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 59.1% | 53.3% | +5.8 pp | 1.69 |
| Both teams not to score | 40.9% | 46.7% | −5.8 pp | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.1% | 85.4% | −1.3 pp | 1.19 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15.9% | 14.6% | +1.3 pp | 6.27 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.9% | 69.4% | −9.5 pp | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.1% | 30.6% | +9.5 pp | 2.49 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Lech Poznań sample
- 20 matches
- Radomiak Radom sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.