xgEdge

Expected goals

Lech Poznań expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Ekstraklasa · after 8 matches · updated 1 Oct

Lech Poznań's attacking and defensive expected goals in Ekstraklasa 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Lech Poznań xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
2.07 xG per match
#1/18
Attack (xG per match) across Ekstraklasa, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Lech Poznań 2.07
#2 Wisła Kraków 1.99
#3 GKS Katowice 1.77
#4 Legia Warszawa 1.71
#5 Górnik Zabrze 1.58
#6 Widzew Łódź 1.57
#7 Wieczysta Kraków 1.57
#8 Cracovia 1.53
#9 Wisła Płock 1.52
#10 Jagiellonia Białystok 1.50
#11 Pogoń Szczecin 1.48
#12 Raków Częstochowa 1.42
#13 Radomiak Radom 1.41
#14 MKS Korona Kielce 1.40
#15 Śląsk Wrocław 1.40
#16 Motor Lublin 1.39
#17 Zagłębie Lubin 1.35
#18 Piast Gliwice 1.22
League avg
1.54
Total
16.59 8 matches
Defence
0.89 xGA per match
#1/18
Defence (xGA per match) across Ekstraklasa, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Lech Poznań 0.89
#2 Górnik Zabrze 1.05
#3 Wisła Kraków 1.10
#4 Zagłębie Lubin 1.22
#5 Legia Warszawa 1.27
#6 Pogoń Szczecin 1.38
#7 Cracovia 1.43
#8 MKS Korona Kielce 1.48
#9 Jagiellonia Białystok 1.52
#10 Motor Lublin 1.53
#11 Wieczysta Kraków 1.60
#12 Wisła Płock 1.63
#13 Widzew Łódź 1.67
#14 Śląsk Wrocław 1.73
#15 Piast Gliwice 1.87
#16 GKS Katowice 2.00
#17 Radomiak Radom 2.05
#18 Raków Częstochowa 2.36
League avg
1.54
Total
7.12 8 matches
xG difference
+1.18 xGD per match
#1/18
xG difference (xGD per match) across Ekstraklasa, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Lech Poznań +1.18
#2 Wisła Kraków +0.89
#3 Górnik Zabrze +0.53
#4 Legia Warszawa +0.43
#5 Zagłębie Lubin +0.13
#6 Cracovia +0.10
#7 Pogoń Szczecin +0.10
#8 Jagiellonia Białystok -0.03
#9 Wieczysta Kraków -0.04
#10 MKS Korona Kielce -0.07
#11 Widzew Łódź -0.10
#12 Wisła Płock -0.11
#13 Motor Lublin -0.14
#14 GKS Katowice -0.23
#15 Śląsk Wrocław -0.34
#16 Radomiak Radom -0.64
#17 Piast Gliwice -0.65
#18 Raków Częstochowa -0.94
League avg
0.00
Total
+9.47 8 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
2.07 xPts per match
#1/18
Expected points (xPts per match) across Ekstraklasa, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Lech Poznań 2.07
#2 Wisła Kraków 1.97
#3 Górnik Zabrze 1.79
#4 Legia Warszawa 1.66
#5 Pogoń Szczecin 1.48
#6 Zagłębie Lubin 1.47
#7 Cracovia 1.42
#8 Wieczysta Kraków 1.33
#9 GKS Katowice 1.30
#10 Wisła Płock 1.30
#11 Widzew Łódź 1.29
#12 MKS Korona Kielce 1.27
#13 Motor Lublin 1.26
#14 Jagiellonia Białystok 1.23
#15 Śląsk Wrocław 1.20
#16 Radomiak Radom 0.99
#17 Piast Gliwice 0.96
#18 Raków Częstochowa 0.93
League avg
1.38
Total
16.55 vs 19 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 8 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Lech Poznań's underlying numbers are league-leading. They rank #1 for xG difference at +1.18 per match, driven by both elite shot volume and the league's best chance quality. Their 17 goals are 0.41 above 16.59 xG, while 19 points are 2.45 above 16.55 xPts. After only 8 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
17 16.59 +0.41 scored 0.41 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
7 7.12 -0.12 conceded 0.12 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
19 16.55 +2.45 2.45 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Lech Poznań are 0.41 goals above their xG after 8 matches. The gap was widest at +0.73, against Jagiellonia Białystok on Thu 03/09.

Goals
17
xG
16.59
Gap
+0.41
Sat 25/07 Sat 01/08 Sun 09/08 Sun 30/08 Thu 03/09 Sun 06/09 Sat 12/09 Sun 20/09 -2 -1 0 +1 -0.79 -0.48 -0.60 +0.51 +0.73 -1.11 -0.61 +0.41 -0.79 +0.31 -0.12 +1.11 +0.22 -1.84 +0.50 +1.02 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Lech Poznań: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 25/07 Cracovia 0 0.79 -0.79 -0.79
Sat 01/08 Wieczysta Kraków 2 1.69 +0.31 -0.48
Sun 09/08 Piast Gliwice 3 3.12 -0.12 -0.60
Sun 30/08 Widzew Łódź 3 1.89 +1.11 +0.51
Thu 03/09 Jagiellonia Białystok 2 1.78 +0.22 +0.73
Sun 06/09 Raków Częstochowa 1 2.84 -1.84 -1.11
Sat 12/09 Górnik Zabrze 1 0.50 +0.50 -0.61
Sun 20/09 Radomiak Radom 5 3.98 +1.02 +0.41

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Lech Poznań xG trend

Current form +1.52 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 6 of 8 matches. The worst was against Górnik Zabrze on Sat 12/09 (-1.03).

npxG · last 6
2.39
npxGA · last 6
0.88
-2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 -0.09 Sat 25/07 +0.64 Sat 01/08 +1.76 Sun 09/08 +1.08 Sun 30/08 +1.26 Thu 03/09 +2.97 Sun 06/09 -1.03 Sat 12/09 +3.05 Sun 20/09 +1.20 season avg
Lech Poznań: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 25/07 Cracovia 0.79 0.88 -0.09 -0.09
Sat 01/08 Wieczysta Kraków 1.63 0.99 +0.64 +0.27
Sun 09/08 Piast Gliwice 2.78 1.02 +1.76 +0.77
Sun 30/08 Widzew Łódź 1.89 0.81 +1.08 +0.85
Thu 03/09 Jagiellonia Białystok 1.76 0.50 +1.26 +0.93
Sun 06/09 Raków Częstochowa 3.37 0.40 +2.97 +1.27
Sat 12/09 Górnik Zabrze 0.50 1.53 -1.03 +0.94
Sun 20/09 Radomiak Radom 4.04 0.99 +3.05 +1.20

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 2.09 npxG and 0.89 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 14 hardest of 18 in Ekstraklasa
−0.04 xG vs league average
Over 8 league matches
Last 5
tied number 15 hardest of 18 in Ekstraklasa
−0.09 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.04 xG vs league average · over 8 matches · tied number 14 hardest of 18

  1. Radomiak Radom Home −0.29
  2. Górnik Zabrze Away +0.27
  3. Raków Częstochowa Home −0.23
  4. Jagiellonia Białystok Home −0.10
  5. Widzew Łódź Away −0.10
  6. Piast Gliwice Home −0.09
  7. Wieczysta Kraków Away +0.03
  8. Cracovia Home +0.15

Last 5

−0.09 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 15 hardest of 18

  1. Radomiak Radom Home −0.29
  2. Górnik Zabrze Away +0.27
  3. Raków Częstochowa Home −0.23
  4. Jagiellonia Białystok Home −0.10
  5. Widzew Łódź Away −0.10

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Lech Poznań shots and chance quality

High volume, high quality. Lech Poznań take 18.9 shots a match (league 14.9) at 0.11 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #2 in Ekstraklasa for volume and #1 for quality. 61% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%), and set pieces produce 13% of their npxG (league 27%).

Attack

Shot volume
18.9 shots per match
#2/18
Shot volume (shots per match) across Ekstraklasa, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Wisła Kraków 19.1
#2 Lech Poznań 18.9
#3 GKS Katowice 16.8
#4 Legia Warszawa 15.4
#5 Widzew Łódź 15.3
=6 Cracovia 15.1
=6 Raków Częstochowa 15.1
#8 Wisła Płock 14.9
=9 Motor Lublin 14.7
=9 Radomiak Radom 14.7
#11 Wieczysta Kraków 14.5
#12 Piast Gliwice 14.0
#13 MKS Korona Kielce 13.7
#14 Pogoń Szczecin 13.5
#15 Górnik Zabrze 13.4
#16 Jagiellonia Białystok 13.4
#17 Zagłębie Lubin 13.3
#18 Śląsk Wrocław 12.0
League avg
14.9
Total
151 shots from 8 matches
Chance quality
0.11 npxG per shot
#1/18
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Ekstraklasa, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Lech Poznań 0.11
#2 Pogoń Szczecin 0.11
#3 Wisła Płock 0.11
#4 Śląsk Wrocław 0.10
#5 Legia Warszawa 0.10
#6 Wieczysta Kraków 0.10
#7 Zagłębie Lubin 0.10
#8 Górnik Zabrze 0.10
#9 Widzew Łódź 0.10
#10 Cracovia 0.10
#11 Motor Lublin 0.10
#12 Wisła Kraków 0.10
#13 GKS Katowice 0.09
#14 MKS Korona Kielce 0.09
#15 Jagiellonia Białystok 0.09
#16 Radomiak Radom 0.08
#17 Raków Częstochowa 0.08
#18 Piast Gliwice 0.08
League avg
0.10
Total
16.76 npxG from 151 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
11.1 shots per match
#1/18
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Ekstraklasa, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Lech Poznań 11.1
#2 Górnik Zabrze 11.4
#3 Wisła Kraków 12.0
#4 Legia Warszawa 12.7
#5 Motor Lublin 13.9
#6 MKS Korona Kielce 14.0
#7 Wisła Płock 14.4
#8 Widzew Łódź 14.9
#9 Cracovia 15.1
#10 Raków Częstochowa 15.3
#11 Zagłębie Lubin 15.8
=12 Jagiellonia Białystok 16.1
=12 Pogoń Szczecin 16.1
#14 Śląsk Wrocław 16.2
#15 GKS Katowice 16.9
#16 Wieczysta Kraków 17.0
#17 Piast Gliwice 17.2
#18 Radomiak Radom 17.6
League avg
14.9
Total
89 shots allowed from 8 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.08 npxGA per shot
#3/18
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Ekstraklasa, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Zagłębie Lubin 0.06
#2 Cracovia 0.07
#3 Lech Poznań 0.08
#4 Jagiellonia Białystok 0.08
#5 Górnik Zabrze 0.08
#6 Wisła Kraków 0.09
#7 Pogoń Szczecin 0.09
#8 Legia Warszawa 0.09
#9 Wieczysta Kraków 0.10
#10 Wisła Płock 0.10
#11 Motor Lublin 0.10
#12 Piast Gliwice 0.10
#13 MKS Korona Kielce 0.10
#14 GKS Katowice 0.11
#15 Radomiak Radom 0.11
#16 Śląsk Wrocław 0.11
#17 Widzew Łódź 0.12
#18 Raków Częstochowa 0.14
League avg
0.10
Total
7.12 npxGA from 89 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

61% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 92 of 151 shots over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

58% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 52 of 89 shots allowed over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

87% open play · 13% set pieces

League avg 27% set pieces

From 2.1 of 16.8 npxG over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

76% open play · 24% set pieces

League avg 27% set pieces

From 1.7 of 7.2 npxG allowed over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Lech Poznań home and away xG

Lech Poznań per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 5 3
xG / match 2.50 1.36
xGA / match 0.76 1.11
xGD / match +1.74 +0.25
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 2.38 1.55

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Lech Poznań match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
8
xG / match
2.07
xGA / match
0.89
xGD / match
+1.18
Points
19 of 24
  1. Sun 20/09 Radomiak Radom H Best underlying xG 3.98 xGA 0.98 xGD +3.00
  2. Sat 12/09 Górnik Zabrze A Weakest underlying xG 0.50 xGA 1.53 xGD -1.03
  3. Sun 06/09 Raków Częstochowa H xG 2.84 xGA 0.40 xGD +2.44
  4. Thu 03/09 Jagiellonia Białystok H xG 1.78 xGA 0.48 xGD +1.30
  5. Sun 30/08 Widzew Łódź A xG 1.89 xGA 0.80 xGD +1.09
  6. Sun 09/08 Piast Gliwice H xG 3.12 xGA 1.06 xGD +2.06
  7. Sat 01/08 Wieczysta Kraków A xG 1.69 xGA 0.99 xGD +0.70
  8. Sat 25/07 Cracovia H xG 0.79 xGA 0.88 xGD -0.09

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.98. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Lech Poznań in Ekstraklasa

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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