Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 16:00
20d 15h to kick-offLegia Warszawa – Lech Poznań
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Legia Warszawa
- 29%
- Draw
- 31%
- Lech Poznań
- 41%
| Legia Warszawa | Draw | Lech Poznań | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.48 | 3.26 | 2.46 |
- Total goals
- 2.61
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Lech Poznań
41% Lech Poznań to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 5th
- Lech Poznań attack v Legia Warszawa defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 8th
- Lech Poznań defence v Legia Warszawa attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.48 vs +0.22
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.19 – 1.42
- Legia Warszawa v Lech Poznań
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Legia Warszawa | Lech Poznań |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.71 · 4th | (better) 2.07 · 1st |
| xGA / match | 1.27 · 5th | (better) 0.89 · 1st |
| xGD / match | +0.43 · 4th | (better) +1.18 · 1st |
| xPts / match | 1.66 · 4th | (better) 2.07 · 1st |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.22 | (better) +1.48 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Lech Poznań clean sheet
- 28%
- Lech Poznań 2+ goals
- 43%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score: no
- 41%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.6%
- 1:2
- 10.4%
- 2:1
- 8.4%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Legia Warszawa sample
- 20 matches
- Lech Poznań sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Legia Warszawa
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Lech Poznań
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.