Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 16:00
25d 12h to kick-offRaków Częstochowa – Pogoń Szczecin
Model updated 6 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Raków Częstochowa
- 39%
- Draw
- 29%
- Pogoń Szczecin
- 32%
| Raków Częstochowa | Draw | Pogoń Szczecin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.57 | 3.48 | 3.08 |
- Total goals
- 2.97
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Both teams to score
- 66%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Raków Częstochowa
39% Raków Częstochowa to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 11th
- Raków Częstochowa attack v Pogoń Szczecin defence
- Defence
- 17th vs 11th
- Raków Częstochowa defence v Pogoń Szczecin attack
- Recent xG form
- -1.44 vs +0.50
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.55 – 1.42
- Raków Częstochowa v Pogoń Szczecin
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Raków Częstochowa | Pogoń Szczecin |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.42 · 12th | (better) 1.48 · 11th |
| xGA / match | 2.36 · 18th | (better) 1.38 · 6th |
| xGD / match | -0.94 · 18th | (better) +0.10 · 7th |
| xPts / match | 0.93 · 18th | (better) 1.48 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.45 | (better) +0.50 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Raków Częstochowa clean sheet
- 21%
- Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals
- 48%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 41%
- Both teams to score: no
- 34%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.8%
- 2:1
- 10.1%
- 1:2
- 9.1%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Raków Częstochowa sample
- 20 matches
- Pogoń Szczecin sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Raków Częstochowa
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Pogoń Szczecin
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.