Friday, 09/10/2026 at 18:00
5d 16h to kick-offWieczysta Kraków – Wisła Płock
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 1 October, 10:22
What the model expects
- Wieczysta Kraków
- 43%
- Draw
- 28%
- Wisła Płock
- 30%
| Wieczysta Kraków | Draw | Wisła Płock | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.34 | 3.60 | 3.38 |
- Total goals
- 3.09
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62%
- Both teams to score
- 67%
One of these teams has only 8 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 1 outcome.
-
Wieczysta Kraków
- Model
- 42.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 43.0%
- Probability gap
- −0.3 pp
- Edge
- −10.3%
- Fair odds
- 2.34
- Market odds
- 2.10 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.46
- Bookmaker margin
- 10.7%
-
Draw
- Model
- 27.8%
- Market, margin removed
- 25.8%
- Probability gap
- +1.9 pp
- Edge
- −2.8%
- Fair odds
- 3.60
- Market odds
- 3.50 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.78
- Bookmaker margin
- 10.7%
-
Wisła Płock
- Model
- 29.5%
- Market, margin removed
- 31.2%
- Probability gap
- −1.6 pp
- Edge
- −14.3%
- Fair odds
- 3.38
- Market odds
- 2.90 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.55
- Bookmaker margin
- 10.7%
Outcomes with value
Over 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Match result
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Wieczysta Kraków
43% Wieczysta Kraków to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 9th
- Wieczysta Kraków attack v Wisła Płock defence
- Defence
- 14th vs 5th
- Wieczysta Kraków defence v Wisła Płock attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.01 vs +0.00
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.69 – 1.40
- Wieczysta Kraków v Wisła Płock
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 8 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Wieczysta Kraków | Wisła Płock |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.57 · 7th | 1.52 · 9th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.60 · 11th | 1.63 · 12th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.04 · 9th | -0.11 · 12th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.33 · 8th | 1.30 · 10th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.02 | +0.00 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- Wieczysta Kraków clean sheet
- 22%
- Wieczysta Kraków 2+ goals
- 52%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 38%
- Both teams to score: no
- 33%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.1%
- 2:1
- 10.5%
- 1:2
- 8.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
· 1 warning
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Wieczysta Kraków sample
- 8 matches
- Wisła Płock sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Wieczysta Kraków
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Wisła Płock
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 2 days ago · over a day old
Warnings
- Wieczysta Kraków has only 8 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.