Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 17:00
28d 15h to kick-offAalesunds FK – Sandefjord Fotball
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Aalesunds FK
- 43%
- Draw
- 29%
- Sandefjord Fotball
- 29%
| Aalesunds FK | Draw | Sandefjord Fotball | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.33 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
- Total goals
- 2.92
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score
- 64%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Aalesunds FK
43% Aalesunds FK to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 11th
- Aalesunds FK attack v Sandefjord Fotball defence
- Defence
- 16th vs 11th
- Aalesunds FK defence v Sandefjord Fotball attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.55 vs -0.52
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.61 – 1.31
- Aalesunds FK v Sandefjord Fotball
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Aalesunds FK | Sandefjord Fotball |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.40 · 10th | 1.18 · 13th |
| xGA / match | 1.98 · 16th | (better) 1.59 · 9th |
| xGD / match | -0.58 · 14th | (better) -0.41 · 11th |
| xPts / match | 1.04 · 14th | (better) 1.09 · 12th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.55 | (better) -0.52 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Aalesunds FK clean sheet
- 24%
- Aalesunds FK 2+ goals
- 49%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score: no
- 36%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.9%
- 2:1
- 10.6%
- 1:2
- 8.4%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Aalesunds FK sample
- 20 matches
- Sandefjord Fotball sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Aalesunds FK
- 11 matches
- Away xG sample · Sandefjord Fotball
- 10 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.