Sunday, 11/10/2026 at 17:00
7d 14h to kick-offAalesunds FK – Sarpsborg 08
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Aalesunds FK
- 37%
- Draw
- 29%
- Sarpsborg 08
- 34%
| Aalesunds FK | Draw | Sarpsborg 08 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.98 |
- Total goals
- 2.85
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score
- 64%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 8 outcomes.
-
Aalesunds FK
- Model
- 37.0%
- Market, margin removed
- 37.6%
- Probability gap
- −0.5 pp
- Edge
- −9.2%
- Fair odds
- 2.70
- Market odds
- 2.45 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.83
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.7%
-
Draw
- Model
- 29.4%
- Market, margin removed
- 24.9%
- Probability gap
- +4.5 pp
- Edge
- +8.8%
- Fair odds
- 3.40
- Market odds
- 3.70 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.57
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.7%
-
Sarpsborg 08
- Model
- 33.5%
- Market, margin removed
- 37.6%
- Probability gap
- −4.0 pp
- Edge
- −17.8%
- Fair odds
- 2.98
- Market odds
- 2.45 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.13
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.7%
Outcomes with value
Sarpsborg 08 at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Sarpsborg 08 not to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Aalesunds FK at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Aalesunds FK not to score
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Under 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Both teams not to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Best opportunity
Sarpsborg 08 at most 1 goal
Model 58.5% vs. bookmaker 48.5%, margin removed.
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model can't separate them
37% Aalesunds FK to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 5th
- Aalesunds FK attack v Sarpsborg 08 defence
- Defence
- 16th vs 8th
- Aalesunds FK defence v Sarpsborg 08 attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.55 vs +0.14
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.46 – 1.39
- Aalesunds FK v Sarpsborg 08
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Aalesunds FK | Sarpsborg 08 |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.40 · 10th | (better) 1.51 · 9th |
| xGA / match | 1.98 · 16th | (better) 1.40 · 5th |
| xGD / match | -0.58 · 14th | (better) +0.11 · 6th |
| xPts / match | 1.04 · 14th | (better) 1.45 · 7th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.55 | (better) +0.14 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Aalesunds FK clean sheet
- 22%
- Aalesunds FK 2+ goals
- 44%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score: no
- 36%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.5%
- 2:1
- 9.9%
- 1:2
- 9.3%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Aalesunds FK sample
- 20 matches
- Sarpsborg 08 sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Aalesunds FK
- 11 matches
- Away xG sample · Sarpsborg 08
- 11 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.