Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 19:15
21d 17h to kick-offMolde FK – Fredrikstad FK
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Molde FK
- 55%
- Draw
- 28%
- Fredrikstad FK
- 17%
| Molde FK | Draw | Fredrikstad FK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.83 | 3.54 | 5.82 |
- Total goals
- 2.56
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score
- 54%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Molde FK
55% Molde FK to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 9th
- Molde FK attack v Fredrikstad FK defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 13th
- Molde FK defence v Fredrikstad FK attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.31 vs -0.04
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.66 – 0.90
- Molde FK v Fredrikstad FK
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Molde FK | Fredrikstad FK |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.83 · 3rd | 1.20 · 12th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.17 · 3rd | 1.67 · 13th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.66 · 3rd | -0.47 · 12th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.80 · 3rd | 1.10 · 11th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.31 | -0.04 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- Molde FK clean sheet
- 38%
- Molde FK 2+ goals
- 51%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score: no
- 46%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.6%
- 2:1
- 11.5%
- 2:0
- 10.9%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Molde FK sample
- 20 matches
- Fredrikstad FK sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Molde FK
- 11 matches
- Away xG sample · Fredrikstad FK
- 11 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.