Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 17:00
28d 16h to kick-offSK Brann – Molde FK
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- SK Brann
- 33%
- Draw
- 31%
- Molde FK
- 36%
| SK Brann | Draw | Molde FK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.01 | 3.23 | 2.79 |
- Total goals
- 2.60
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
36% Molde FK to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 8th
- Molde FK attack v SK Brann defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 9th
- Molde FK defence v SK Brann attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.31 vs -0.04
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.28 – 1.33
- SK Brann v Molde FK
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | SK Brann | Molde FK |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.58 · 5th | (better) 1.83 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | 1.53 · 8th | (better) 1.17 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | +0.05 · 8th | (better) +0.66 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 1.40 · 8th | (better) 1.80 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.04 | (better) +1.31 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Molde FK clean sheet
- 25%
- Molde FK 2+ goals
- 39%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score: no
- 41%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.7%
- 1:2
- 9.6%
- 2:1
- 9.2%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SK Brann sample
- 20 matches
- Molde FK sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · SK Brann
- 11 matches
- Away xG sample · Molde FK
- 10 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.