Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 14:30
21d 15h to kick-offViking FK – Tromsø IL
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Viking FK
- 47%
- Draw
- 30%
- Tromsø IL
- 23%
| Viking FK | Draw | Tromsø IL | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.15 | 3.30 | 4.32 |
- Total goals
- 2.53
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score
- 56%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Viking FK
47% Viking FK to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 2nd
- Viking FK attack v Tromsø IL defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 10th
- Viking FK defence v Tromsø IL attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.44 vs +0.01
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.50 – 1.03
- Viking FK v Tromsø IL
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Viking FK | Tromsø IL |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.09 · 2nd | 1.60 · 4th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.16 · 2nd | 1.23 · 4th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.93 · 2nd | +0.37 · 4th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.97 · 2nd | 1.68 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.44 | +0.01 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- Viking FK clean sheet
- 33%
- Viking FK 2+ goals
- 46%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score: no
- 44%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.6%
- 2:1
- 10.9%
- 1:0
- 9.6%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Viking FK sample
- 20 matches
- Tromsø IL sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Viking FK
- 10 matches
- Away xG sample · Tromsø IL
- 10 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.