Friday, 06/11/2026 at 20:00
31d 17h to kick-offWillem II Tilburg – PEC Zwolle
Model updated 6 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Willem II Tilburg
- 42%
- Draw
- 28%
- PEC Zwolle
- 30%
| Willem II Tilburg | Draw | PEC Zwolle | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.36 | 3.61 | 3.33 |
- Total goals
- 3.11
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62%
- Both teams to score
- 68%
One of these teams has only 7 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Willem II Tilburg
42% Willem II Tilburg to win
- Attack
- 13th vs 15th
- Willem II Tilburg attack v PEC Zwolle defence
- Defence
- 18th vs 16th
- Willem II Tilburg defence v PEC Zwolle attack
- Recent xG form
- -1.00 vs -1.08
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.69 – 1.42
- Willem II Tilburg v PEC Zwolle
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 7 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Willem II Tilburg | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.29 · 13th | 0.94 · 17th |
| xGA / match | 2.28 · 17th | (better) 2.06 · 14th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.99 · 15th | -1.12 · 17th |
| xPts / match | (better) 0.79 · 16th | 0.73 · 17th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -1.00 | -1.08 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- Willem II Tilburg clean sheet
- 21%
- Willem II Tilburg 2+ goals
- 52%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 38%
- Both teams to score: no
- 32%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.9%
- 2:1
- 10.4%
- 1:2
- 8.6%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Willem II Tilburg sample
- 7 matches
- PEC Zwolle sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Willem II Tilburg
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · PEC Zwolle
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- Willem II Tilburg has only 7 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.