HNK Gorica 2:2 NK Varaždin: xG & match report · HNL

Monday, 14/09/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · HNL

HNK Gorica Home 0.85 xG · 9 shots

NK Varaždin Away 1.55 xG · 20 shots

22 NK Varaždin had the better chances, but it finished level

A draw was the model's likeliest result before kick-off at 35%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was NK Varaždin's attack: 1.55 xG against 1.03 projected (+0.52).

Goals

53' Bruno Bogojević HNK Gorica · 0.05 xG chance 1–0
57' Luka Mamić NK Varaždin · 0.01 xG chance 1–1
85' Valentin Akrap NK Varaždin · 0.44 xG chance 1–2
90' Ivan Cvijanović HNK Gorica · 0.13 xG chance 2–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

HNK Gorica: 32%
Draw: 35% What happened
NK Varaždin: 33%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

HNK Gorica 1.01 0.85 -0.16

NK Varaždin 1.03 1.55 +0.52

NK Varaždin produced 0.52 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

HNK Gorica NK Varaždin

Shots: 9; 20
On target: 3; 8
Inside the box: 7; 8
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.08
Open play xG: 0.27; 1.63
Set-piece xG: 0.45; 0.04
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.71 for HNK Gorica and 1.67 for NK Varaždin.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

29 shots · 2.39 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

HNK Gorica
NK Varaždin
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

HNK Gorica

0.92 xG created 1.37 xGA

L 0.82 created, 2.70 conceded against NK Osijek
L 1.54 created, 1.13 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
L 1.27 created, 1.20 conceded against HNK Hajduk Split
L 0.93 created, 1.07 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo
D 0.15 created, 0.40 conceded against HNK Rijeka
L 0.79 created, 1.70 conceded against GNK Dinamo Zagreb

NK Varaždin

1.49 xG created 0.93 xGA

W 0.90 created, 1.16 conceded against HNK Hajduk Split
W 2.49 created, 0.95 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo
W 1.75 created, 0.72 conceded against HNK Rijeka
L 0.42 created, 2.10 conceded against GNK Dinamo Zagreb
W 1.93 created, 0.36 conceded against NK Rudeš
D 1.45 created, 0.30 conceded against NK Istra 1961

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

HNK Gorica: 0 won · 2 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged1 won7 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on HNK Gorica against NK Varaždin before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
NK Varaždin not to score	4.00	+32.0%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	3.50	+24.5%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	1.85	+23.6%	Lost
NK Varaždin at most 1 goal	1.67	+21.1%	Lost
Draw	3.10	+9.6%	Won
Both teams not to score	2.00	+7.2%	Lost
HNK Gorica to win	3.25	+3.3%	Lost
HNK Gorica at most 1 goal	1.36	+0.1%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
HNK Gorica	31.8%	27.5%	+4.3 pp	3.15
Draw	35.4%	28.9%	+6.5 pp	2.83
NK Varaždin	32.9%	43.6%	−10.8 pp	3.04

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
HNK Gorica to score	66.2%	66.3%	−0.0 pp	1.51
HNK Gorica not to score	33.8%	33.7%	+0.0 pp	2.96
NK Varaždin to score	67.0%	76.6%	−9.6 pp	1.49
NK Varaždin not to score	33.0%	23.4%	+9.6 pp	3.03
Both teams to score	46.4%	53.7%	−7.2 pp	2.15
Both teams not to score	53.6%	46.3%	+7.2 pp	1.87
HNK Gorica 2+ goals	26.6%	31.3%	−4.7 pp	3.76
HNK Gorica at most 1 goal	73.4%	68.7%	+4.7 pp	1.36
NK Varaždin 2+ goals	27.4%	44.3%	−16.9 pp	3.66
NK Varaždin at most 1 goal	72.6%	55.7%	+16.9 pp	1.38
Over 1.5 goals	64.4%	73.1%	−8.7 pp	1.55
Under 1.5 goals	35.6%	26.9%	+8.7 pp	2.81
Over 2.5 goals	33.2%	48.7%	−15.5 pp	3.01
Under 2.5 goals	66.8%	51.3%	+15.5 pp	1.50

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
HNK Gorica sample: 20 matches
NK Varaždin sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.