Friday, 18/09/2026 at 20:45
Full timeKAA Gent 2:1 Standard Liège
KAA Gent were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 50%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was KAA Gent's attack: 1.30 xG against 1.57 projected (−0.27).
Goals
- 31' Josué Vergara KAA Gent · 0.44 xG chance 1–0
- 45' Casper Nielsen Standard Liège · 0.23 xG chance 1–1
- 83' Christian Burgess KAA Gent · 0.24 xG chance 2–1
The model against the result
- KAA Gent
- 50% What happened
- Draw
- 30%
- Standard Liège
- 20%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
KAA Gent produced 0.27 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 11
- 14
- On target
- 6
- 4
- Inside the box
- 10
- 10
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.08
- Open play xG
- 0.93
- 0.72
- Set-piece xG
- 0.40
- 0.35
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.30 for KAA Gent and 1.10 for Standard Liège.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
25 shots · 2.40 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- KAA Gent
- Standard Liège
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.14 xG created 0.58 xGA
- W 1.16 created, 0.34 conceded against KV Mechelen
- W 1.18 created, 0.54 conceded against RAAL La Louvière
- W 1.38 created, 0.65 conceded against Club Brugge KV
- W 0.98 created, 0.52 conceded against Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- W 1.22 created, 0.49 conceded against Cercle Brugge
- D 0.89 created, 0.94 conceded against KRC Genk
1.90 xG created 1.57 xGA
- D 2.60 created, 1.47 conceded against Cercle Brugge
- D 1.64 created, 2.75 conceded against KV Mechelen
- W 1.15 created, 1.07 conceded against RAAL La Louvière
- W 1.36 created, 1.89 conceded against Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- W 3.42 created, 0.83 conceded against Royal Antwerp FC
- L 1.22 created, 1.41 conceded against KVC Westerlo
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged2 won1 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | +5.7% | Won |
| Draw | 3.40 | +0.7% | Lost |
| Standard Liège to score | 1.53 | +0.4% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KAA Gent | 50.0% | 51.1% | −1.1 pp | 2.00 |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.0% | +2.6 pp | 3.38 |
| Standard Liège | 20.4% | 21.9% | −1.5 pp | 4.90 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KAA Gent to score | 81.8% | 78.3% | +3.5 pp | 1.22 |
| KAA Gent not to score | 18.2% | 21.7% | −3.5 pp | 5.51 |
| Standard Liège to score | 65.5% | 60.8% | +4.7 pp | 1.53 |
| Standard Liège not to score | 34.5% | 39.2% | −4.7 pp | 2.90 |
| Both teams to score | 55.3% | 50.0% | +5.3 pp | 1.81 |
| Both teams not to score | 44.7% | 50.0% | −5.3 pp | 2.24 |
| KAA Gent 2+ goals | 48.1% | 48.5% | −0.5 pp | 2.08 |
| KAA Gent at most 1 goal | 51.9% | 51.5% | +0.5 pp | 1.93 |
| Standard Liège 2+ goals | 25.3% | 25.0% | +0.3 pp | 3.95 |
| Standard Liège at most 1 goal | 74.7% | 75.0% | −0.3 pp | 1.34 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.5% | 73.1% | +3.4 pp | 1.31 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23.5% | 26.9% | −3.4 pp | 4.26 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.9% | 47.4% | +0.5 pp | 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.1% | 52.6% | −0.5 pp | 1.92 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- KAA Gent sample
- 20 matches
- Standard Liège sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 46 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 11 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.