KVC Westerlo 4:2 Standard Liège: xG & match report · Jupiler Pro League

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 18:15

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Match report · Jupiler Pro League

KVC Westerlo Home 1.41 xG · 10 shots

Standard Liège Away 1.22 xG · 12 shots

42 The chances were evenly matched

KVC Westerlo were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. They won 4–2. The biggest difference was KVC Westerlo's attack: 1.41 xG against 1.80 projected (−0.39).

Goals

12' Norman Bassette KVC Westerlo · 0.15 xG chance 1–0
56' Amando Lapage KVC Westerlo · 0.35 xG chance 2–0
66' Bruny Nsimba Standard Liège · 0.08 xG chance 2–1
71' Adnane Abid Standard Liège · 0.22 xG chance 2–2
77' Pape Diong KVC Westerlo · 0.58 xG chance 3–2
90' Thomas Van den Keybus KVC Westerlo · 0.13 xG chance 4–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

KVC Westerlo: 49% What happened
Draw: 27%
Standard Liège: 24%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

KVC Westerlo 1.80 1.41 -0.39

Standard Liège 1.26 1.22 -0.04

KVC Westerlo produced 0.39 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

KVC Westerlo Standard Liège

Shots: 10; 12
On target: 7; 6
Inside the box: 7; 8
xG per shot: 0.14; 0.10
Open play xG: 0.47; 1.08
Set-piece xG: 0.93; 0.17
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.41 for KVC Westerlo and 1.22 for Standard Liège.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

22 shots · 2.65 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

KVC Westerlo
Standard Liège
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

KVC Westerlo

1.21 xG created 1.93 xGA

L 0.43 created, 2.10 conceded against Royal Antwerp FC
L 0.76 created, 1.79 conceded against Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
L 0.85 created, 4.24 conceded against KRC Genk
L 0.66 created, 1.34 conceded against Lommel SK
D 2.16 created, 1.51 conceded against SV Zulte Waregem
W 2.41 created, 0.58 conceded against KV Mechelen

Standard Liège

1.79 xG created 1.65 xGA

L 0.58 created, 1.91 conceded against RC Sporting Charleroi
D 2.60 created, 1.47 conceded against Cercle Brugge
D 1.64 created, 2.75 conceded against KV Mechelen
W 1.15 created, 1.07 conceded against RAAL La Louvière
W 1.36 created, 1.89 conceded against Oud-Heverlee Leuven
W 3.42 created, 0.83 conceded against Royal Antwerp FC

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

KVC Westerlo: 1 won · 1 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged3 won2 lost

Won
Won
Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on KVC Westerlo against Standard Liège before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
KVC Westerlo to win	2.40	+17.7%	Won
KVC Westerlo 2+ goals	2.00	+11.6%	Won
Standard Liège at most 1 goal	1.73	+9.6%	Lost
KVC Westerlo to score	1.20	+3.0%	Won
Standard Liège not to score	4.00	+1.8%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
KVC Westerlo	49.1%	38.0%	+11.0 pp	2.04
Draw	27.0%	26.9%	+0.1 pp	3.70
Standard Liège	24.0%	35.1%	−11.2 pp	4.17

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
KVC Westerlo to score	85.8%	78.3%	+7.5 pp	1.16
KVC Westerlo not to score	14.2%	21.7%	−7.5 pp	7.06
Standard Liège to score	74.5%	76.6%	−2.1 pp	1.34
Standard Liège not to score	25.5%	23.4%	+2.1 pp	3.93
Both teams to score	65.5%	62.5%	+3.0 pp	1.53
Both teams not to score	34.5%	37.5%	−3.0 pp	2.90
KVC Westerlo 2+ goals	55.8%	46.3%	+9.4 pp	1.79
KVC Westerlo at most 1 goal	44.2%	53.7%	−9.4 pp	2.26
Standard Liège 2+ goals	36.6%	46.3%	−9.8 pp	2.74
Standard Liège at most 1 goal	63.4%	53.7%	+9.8 pp	1.58
Over 1.5 goals	84.8%	81.1%	+3.8 pp	1.18
Under 1.5 goals	15.2%	18.9%	−3.8 pp	6.60
Over 2.5 goals	61.0%	59.0%	+2.0 pp	1.64
Under 2.5 goals	39.0%	41.0%	−2.0 pp	2.56

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
KVC Westerlo sample: 20 matches
Standard Liège sample: 20 matches
Computed: 3 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.