Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 18:15
Full timeKV Mechelen 0:4 KVC Westerlo
KV Mechelen were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. KVC Westerlo won 4–0. The biggest difference was KVC Westerlo's attack: 2.41 xG against 1.28 projected (+1.13). KV Mechelen produced 0.58 xG against 1.36 projected (−0.78).
Goals
- 7' Isa Sakamoto KVC Westerlo · 0.12 xG chance 0–1
- 27' Shunsuke Saito KVC Westerlo · 0.13 xG chance 0–2
- 67' Shunsuke Saito KVC Westerlo · 0.13 xG chance 0–3
- 88' Nikola Storm KVC Westerlo · 0.03 xG chance 0–4
The model against the result
- KV Mechelen
- 37%
- Draw
- 31%
- KVC Westerlo
- 33% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
KVC Westerlo produced 1.13 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 7
- 21
- On target
- 1
- 6
- Inside the box
- 7
- 16
- xG per shot
- 0.08
- 0.12
- Open play xG
- 0.30
- 1.93
- Set-piece xG
- 0.25
- 0.60
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.55 for KV Mechelen and 2.57 for KVC Westerlo.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
28 shots · 3.08 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- KV Mechelen
- KVC Westerlo
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.11 xG created 1.60 xGA
- D 0.83 created, 1.69 conceded against Club Brugge KV
- L 0.42 created, 1.52 conceded against Sint-Truidense VV
- L 0.34 created, 1.16 conceded against KAA Gent
- D 2.75 created, 1.64 conceded against Standard Liège
- L 0.23 created, 1.44 conceded against RC Sporting Charleroi
- D 2.11 created, 2.17 conceded against RAAL La Louvière
1.03 xG created 2.26 xGA
- L 1.34 created, 2.57 conceded against Standard Liège
- L 0.43 created, 2.10 conceded against Royal Antwerp FC
- L 0.76 created, 1.79 conceded against Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
- L 0.85 created, 4.24 conceded against KRC Genk
- L 0.66 created, 1.34 conceded against Lommel SK
- D 2.16 created, 1.51 conceded against SV Zulte Waregem
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged3 won2 lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| KV Mechelen not to score | 5.00 | +14.6% | Won |
| KV Mechelen at most 1 goal | 1.83 | +9.2% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | +9.0% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.50 | +7.4% | Lost |
| KVC Westerlo to win | 3.20 | +4.6% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KV Mechelen | 36.6% | 44.9% | −8.3 pp | 2.73 |
| Draw | 30.7% | 26.3% | +4.4 pp | 3.26 |
| KVC Westerlo | 32.7% | 28.8% | +3.9 pp | 3.06 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KV Mechelen to score | 77.1% | 81.1% | −4.0 pp | 1.30 |
| KV Mechelen not to score | 22.9% | 18.9% | +4.0 pp | 4.36 |
| KVC Westerlo to score | 74.9% | 75.0% | −0.1 pp | 1.33 |
| KVC Westerlo not to score | 25.1% | 25.0% | +0.1 pp | 3.99 |
| Both teams to score | 59.5% | 60.8% | −1.2 pp | 1.68 |
| Both teams not to score | 40.5% | 39.2% | +1.2 pp | 2.47 |
| KV Mechelen 2+ goals | 40.4% | 50.0% | −9.6 pp | 2.48 |
| KV Mechelen at most 1 goal | 59.6% | 50.0% | +9.6 pp | 1.68 |
| KVC Westerlo 2+ goals | 37.4% | 41.1% | −3.7 pp | 2.67 |
| KVC Westerlo at most 1 goal | 62.6% | 58.9% | +3.7 pp | 1.60 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.2% | 79.2% | −0.9 pp | 1.28 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21.8% | 20.8% | +0.9 pp | 4.60 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.5% | 57.1% | −6.7 pp | 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.5% | 42.9% | +6.7 pp | 2.02 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- KV Mechelen sample
- 20 matches
- KVC Westerlo sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 3 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 3 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.