Sunday, 11/10/2026 at 16:00
Full timeRoyale Union Saint-Gilloise 1:1 Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 63%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Royale Union Saint-Gilloise's attack: 1.29 xG against 1.86 projected (−0.57). Oud-Heverlee Leuven produced 1.35 xG against 0.79 projected (+0.56).
Goals
- 17' Davis Opoku Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 0.29 xG chance 0–1
- 66' Davis Opoku (o.g.) Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 1–1
The model against the result
- Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
- 63%
- Draw
- 25% What happened
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- 12%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise produced 0.57 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 19
- 14
- On target
- 3
- 1
- Inside the box
- 12
- 10
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.10
- Open play xG
- 1.00
- 1.14
- Set-piece xG
- 0.29
- 0.24
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.35 for Oud-Heverlee Leuven.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
33 shots · 2.67 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.14 xG created 1.07 xGA
- D 0.89 created, 0.98 conceded against SV Zulte Waregem
- W 1.60 created, 1.34 conceded against RSC Anderlecht
- W 2.49 created, 0.85 conceded against Sint-Truidense VV
- W 1.24 created, 2.18 conceded against RC Sporting Charleroi
- W 3.27 created, 0.65 conceded against Lommel SK
- W 3.34 created, 0.41 conceded against Royal Antwerp FC
0.97 xG created 1.67 xGA
- L 0.72 created, 2.92 conceded against Club Brugge KV
- L 1.89 created, 1.36 conceded against Standard Liège
- L 0.52 created, 0.98 conceded against KAA Gent
- L 0.88 created, 2.68 conceded against SK Beveren
- D 0.92 created, 1.60 conceded against Cercle Brugge
- W 0.86 created, 0.47 conceded against RAAL La Louvière
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 qualified edges flagged3 won3 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Royale Union Saint-Gilloise at most 1 goal | 3.50 | +48.1% | Won |
| Royale Union Saint-Gilloise not to score | 11.00 | +45.2% | Lost |
| Draw | 5.50 | +37.9% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.70 | +32.6% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 6.00 | +29.8% | Lost |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven to win | 9.50 | +17.0% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royale Union Saint-Gilloise | 62.6% | 73.6% | −11.0 pp | 1.60 |
| Draw | 25.1% | 16.7% | +8.3 pp | 3.99 |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 12.3% | 9.7% | +2.6 pp | 8.12 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royale Union Saint-Gilloise to score | 86.8% | 91.3% | −4.5 pp | 1.15 |
| Royale Union Saint-Gilloise not to score | 13.2% | 8.7% | +4.5 pp | 7.57 |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven to score | 57.7% | 53.7% | +4.1 pp | 1.73 |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven not to score | 42.3% | 46.3% | −4.1 pp | 2.37 |
| Both teams to score | 51.6% | 50.0% | +1.6 pp | 1.94 |
| Both teams not to score | 48.4% | 50.0% | −1.6 pp | 2.07 |
| Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2+ goals | 57.7% | 73.1% | −15.5 pp | 1.73 |
| Royale Union Saint-Gilloise at most 1 goal | 42.3% | 26.9% | +15.5 pp | 2.36 |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2+ goals | 18.0% | 18.9% | −0.9 pp | 5.55 |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven at most 1 goal | 82.0% | 81.1% | +0.9 pp | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.4% | 84.2% | −5.8 pp | 1.28 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21.6% | 15.8% | +5.8 pp | 4.62 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.9% | 65.2% | −14.3 pp | 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.1% | 34.8% | +14.3 pp | 2.04 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Royale Union Saint-Gilloise sample
- 20 matches
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 29 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 3 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.