Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 18:30
Full timeRSC Anderlecht 0:0 KRC Genk
RSC Anderlecht were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was KRC Genk's attack: 0.40 xG against 1.53 projected (−1.13). RSC Anderlecht produced 0.70 xG against 1.56 projected (−0.86).
The model against the result
- RSC Anderlecht
- 36%
- Draw
- 28% What happened
- KRC Genk
- 35%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
KRC Genk produced 1.13 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 12
- 8
- On target
- 4
- 2
- Inside the box
- 7
- 3
- xG per shot
- 0.06
- 0.05
- Open play xG
- 0.70
- 0.29
- Set-piece xG
- 0.02
- 0.10
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.70 for RSC Anderlecht and 0.40 for KRC Genk.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
20 shots · 1.11 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- RSC Anderlecht
- KRC Genk
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.67 xG created 1.22 xGA
- W 2.01 created, 1.50 conceded against Sint-Truidense VV
- L 0.87 created, 2.40 conceded against Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
- W 3.05 created, 0.74 conceded against RAAL La Louvière
- L 1.27 created, 0.64 conceded against SK Beveren
- L 1.34 created, 1.60 conceded against Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
- W 1.50 created, 0.46 conceded against KV Kortrijk
1.91 xG created 1.24 xGA
- W 1.25 created, 1.11 conceded against Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- D 1.09 created, 2.48 conceded against KAA Gent
- L 0.54 created, 0.51 conceded against SV Zulte Waregem
- W 4.24 created, 0.85 conceded against KVC Westerlo
- D 1.30 created, 1.86 conceded against Royal Antwerp FC
- W 3.06 created, 0.61 conceded against SK Beveren
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| KRC Genk to win | 3.00 | +6.2% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 | +3.7% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSC Anderlecht | 36.5% | 42.9% | −6.4 pp | 2.74 |
| Draw | 28.1% | 26.4% | +1.7 pp | 3.56 |
| KRC Genk | 35.4% | 30.7% | +4.7 pp | 2.82 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 67.6% | 60.8% | +6.8 pp | 1.48 |
| Both teams not to score | 32.4% | 39.2% | −6.8 pp | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.3% | 81.1% | +4.2 pp | 1.17 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14.7% | 18.9% | −4.2 pp | 6.78 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.6% | 59.9% | +1.7 pp | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.4% | 40.1% | −1.7 pp | 2.61 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- RSC Anderlecht sample
- 20 matches
- KRC Genk sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 4 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 4 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.