Levante UD 2:4 Barcelona: xG & match report · La Liga

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 16:15

Full time

Match report · La Liga

Levante UD Home 2.42 xG · 13 shots

Barcelona Away 2.58 xG · 12 shots

24 The chances were evenly matched

Barcelona were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 51%. They won 4–2. The biggest difference was Levante UD's attack: 2.42 xG against 1.22 projected (+1.20). Barcelona produced 2.58 xG against 1.82 projected (+0.76).

Goals

5' Xavi Espart Barcelona · 0.06 xG chance 0–1
19' Lamine Yamal Barcelona · 0.70 xG chance 0–2
48' Lamine Yamal (pen.) Barcelona · 0.82 xG chance 0–3
79' Iván Romero Levante UD · 0.94 xG chance 1–3
88' Roger Brugué Levante UD · 0.52 xG chance 2–3
90' Karim Adeyemi Barcelona · 0.32 xG chance 2–4

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Levante UD: 23%
Draw: 27%
Barcelona: 51% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Levante UD 1.22 2.42 +1.20

Barcelona 1.82 2.58 +0.76

Levante UD produced 1.20 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Levante UD Barcelona

Shots: 13; 12
On target: 6; 6
Inside the box: 10; 10
xG per shot: 0.20; 0.22
Open play xG: 2.35; 1.71
Set-piece xG: 0.27; 0.12
Penalties: 0; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.59 for Levante UD and 1.84 for Barcelona.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

25 shots · 5.27 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Levante UD
Barcelona
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Levante UD

1.63 xG created 1.24 xGA

W 2.39 created, 0.30 conceded against Mallorca
L 2.28 created, 1.51 conceded against Real Betis
L 0.28 created, 1.55 conceded against Espanyol
D 1.28 created, 0.70 conceded against Osasuna
W 2.76 created, 1.92 conceded against Real Betis
D 0.81 created, 1.46 conceded against Málaga

Barcelona

3.06 xG created 0.88 xGA

W 1.12 created, 0.97 conceded against Real Betis
L 1.52 created, 1.48 conceded against Valencia
W 4.38 created, 0.70 conceded against Elche
W 4.23 created, 0.25 conceded against Athletic Club
W 3.04 created, 1.21 conceded against Rayo Vallecano
W 4.08 created, 0.66 conceded against Valencia

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Levante UD: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

9 opportunities flagged3 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Levante UD against Barcelona before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Levante UD to win	15.00	+239.4%	Lost
Barcelona not to score	19.00	+162.8%	Lost
Barcelona at most 1 goal	5.50	+139.7%	Lost
Draw	8.50	+127.6%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	4.00	+58.1%	Lost
Levante UD 2+ goals	4.50	+57.1%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	9.00	+39.3%	Lost
Levante UD to score	1.73	+26.5%	Won
Both teams to score	1.80	+16.3%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Levante UD	22.6%	6.3%	+16.3 pp	4.42
Draw	26.8%	11.1%	+15.7 pp	3.73
Barcelona	50.6%	82.6%	−32.0 pp	1.98

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Levante UD to score	73.3%	53.7%	+19.6 pp	1.37
Levante UD not to score	26.7%	46.3%	−19.6 pp	3.74
Barcelona to score	86.2%	94.9%	−8.7 pp	1.16
Barcelona not to score	13.8%	5.1%	+8.7 pp	7.23
Both teams to score	64.6%	52.0%	+12.6 pp	1.55
Both teams not to score	35.4%	48.0%	−12.6 pp	2.83
Levante UD 2+ goals	34.9%	20.8%	+14.1 pp	2.86
Levante UD at most 1 goal	65.1%	79.2%	−14.1 pp	1.54
Barcelona 2+ goals	56.4%	82.8%	−26.4 pp	1.77
Barcelona at most 1 goal	43.6%	17.2%	+26.4 pp	2.29
Over 1.5 goals	84.5%	89.4%	−4.8 pp	1.18
Under 1.5 goals	15.5%	10.6%	+4.8 pp	6.46
Over 2.5 goals	60.5%	76.2%	−15.7 pp	1.65
Under 2.5 goals	39.5%	23.8%	+15.7 pp	2.53

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Levante UD sample: 20 matches
Barcelona sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.