Rayo Vallecano 3:2 Racing de Santander: xG & match report · La Liga

Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 18:30

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Match report · La Liga

Rayo Vallecano Home 1.61 xG · 16 shots

Racing de Santander Away 0.48 xG · 9 shots

32 The scoreline reflected the chances

Rayo Vallecano were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 50%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was Racing de Santander's attack: 0.48 xG against 1.04 projected (−0.56).

Goals

4' Sergio Canales Racing de Santander · 0.05 xG chance 0–1
17' Andrei Rațiu Rayo Vallecano · 0.06 xG chance 1–1
28' Pablo García Racing de Santander · 0.05 xG chance 1–2
43' Sergio Camello Rayo Vallecano · 0.62 xG chance 2–2
47' Sergio Camello Rayo Vallecano · 0.03 xG chance 3–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Rayo Vallecano: 50% What happened
Draw: 29%
Racing de Santander: 21%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Rayo Vallecano 1.65 1.61 -0.04

Racing de Santander 1.04 0.48 -0.56

Racing de Santander produced 0.56 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Rayo Vallecano Racing de Santander

Shots: 16; 9
On target: 10; 4
Inside the box: 9; 4
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.06
Open play xG: 1.06; 0.36
Set-piece xG: 0.41; 0.19
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.50 for Rayo Vallecano and 0.54 for Racing de Santander.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

25 shots · 2.02 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Rayo Vallecano
Racing de Santander
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Rayo Vallecano

1.25 xG created 1.77 xGA

D 1.16 created, 0.76 conceded against Valencia
W 1.49 created, 0.97 conceded against Villarreal
W 1.34 created, 1.63 conceded against Deportivo Alavés
L 1.89 created, 2.19 conceded against Sevilla
D 0.42 created, 2.00 conceded against Deportivo Alavés
L 1.21 created, 3.04 conceded against Barcelona

Racing de Santander

1.63 xG created 0.98 xGA

D 1.87 created, 0.67 conceded against Villarreal
L 1.31 created, 1.24 conceded against Getafe
W 1.72 created, 1.03 conceded against Elche

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged3 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Rayo Vallecano against Racing de Santander before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Racing de Santander not to score	3.40	+10.6%	Lost
Racing de Santander at most 1 goal	1.50	+8.2%	Lost
Rayo Vallecano to score	1.22	+1.7%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	2.10	+1.6%	Lost
Rayo Vallecano 2+ goals	2.00	+1.4%	Won
Rayo Vallecano to win	2.00	+1.0%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano	50.5%	47.3%	+3.2 pp	1.98
Draw	28.6%	27.8%	+0.8 pp	3.50
Racing de Santander	20.9%	24.9%	−4.0 pp	4.78

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano to score	83.2%	76.6%	+6.6 pp	1.20
Rayo Vallecano not to score	16.8%	23.4%	−6.6 pp	5.96
Racing de Santander to score	67.5%	72.3%	−4.9 pp	1.48
Racing de Santander not to score	32.5%	27.7%	+4.9 pp	3.07
Both teams to score	57.8%	58.9%	−1.1 pp	1.73
Both teams not to score	42.2%	41.1%	+1.1 pp	2.37
Rayo Vallecano 2+ goals	50.7%	46.3%	+4.4 pp	1.97
Rayo Vallecano at most 1 goal	49.3%	53.7%	−4.4 pp	2.03
Racing de Santander 2+ goals	27.8%	37.5%	−9.7 pp	3.59
Racing de Santander at most 1 goal	72.2%	62.5%	+9.7 pp	1.39
Over 1.5 goals	79.0%	78.0%	+1.0 pp	1.27
Under 1.5 goals	21.0%	22.0%	−1.0 pp	4.76
Over 2.5 goals	51.6%	54.9%	−3.2 pp	1.94
Under 2.5 goals	48.4%	45.1%	+3.2 pp	2.07

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Rayo Vallecano sample: 20 matches
Racing de Santander sample: 3 matches
Computed: 3 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Racing de Santander has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.