Barcelona 5:2 Rayo Vallecano: xG & match report · La Liga

Monday, 31/08/2026 at 21:30

Full time

Match report · La Liga

Barcelona Home 3.04 xG · 27 shots

Rayo Vallecano Away 1.21 xG · 11 shots

52 The scoreline reflected the chances

Barcelona were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 65%. They won 5–2. The biggest difference was Barcelona's attack: 3.04 xG against 2.03 projected (+1.01). Rayo Vallecano produced 1.21 xG against 0.86 projected (+0.35).

Goals

12' Sergio Camello Rayo Vallecano · 0.33 xG chance 0–1
19' Raphinha Barcelona · 0.51 xG chance 1–1
21' Lamine Yamal Barcelona · 0.05 xG chance 2–1
51' Florian Lejeune (o.g.) Barcelona · 0.13 xG chance 3–1
59' Sergio Camello Rayo Vallecano · 0.09 xG chance 3–2
71' Raphinha Barcelona · 0.22 xG chance 4–2
90' Lamine Yamal Barcelona · 0.08 xG chance 5–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Barcelona: 65% What happened
Draw: 23%
Rayo Vallecano: 12%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Barcelona 2.03 3.04 +1.01

Rayo Vallecano 0.86 1.21 +0.35

Barcelona produced 1.01 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Barcelona Rayo Vallecano

Shots: 27; 11
On target: 10; 5
Inside the box: 17; 7
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.10
Open play xG: 2.61; 0.99
Set-piece xG: 0.37; 0.12
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.96 for Barcelona and 1.09 for Rayo Vallecano.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

38 shots · 4.09 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Barcelona
Rayo Vallecano
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Barcelona

2.14 xG created 0.83 xGA

W 1.01 created, 0.85 conceded against Real Madrid
L 0.60 created, 0.72 conceded against Deportivo Alavés
W 1.12 created, 0.97 conceded against Real Betis
L 1.52 created, 1.48 conceded against Valencia
W 4.38 created, 0.70 conceded against Elche
W 4.23 created, 0.25 conceded against Athletic Club

Rayo Vallecano

1.25 xG created 1.42 xGA

D 1.20 created, 0.98 conceded against Girona FC
D 1.16 created, 0.76 conceded against Valencia
W 1.49 created, 0.97 conceded against Villarreal
W 1.34 created, 1.63 conceded against Deportivo Alavés
L 1.89 created, 2.19 conceded against Sevilla
D 0.42 created, 2.00 conceded against Deportivo Alavés

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Barcelona: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

9 opportunities flagged3 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Barcelona against Rayo Vallecano before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	10.00	+132.9%	Lost
Rayo Vallecano to win	19.00	+131.7%	Lost
Barcelona not to score	19.00	+112.7%	Lost
Barcelona at most 1 goal	5.50	+107.5%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	4.00	+73.4%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	9.00	+62.3%	Lost
Rayo Vallecano 2+ goals	6.00	+24.1%	Won
Rayo Vallecano to score	1.91	+15.2%	Won
Both teams to score	1.95	+7.2%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Barcelona	64.5%	85.6%	−21.1 pp	1.55
Draw	23.3%	9.4%	+13.9 pp	4.29
Rayo Vallecano	12.2%	5.0%	+7.2 pp	8.20

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Barcelona to score	88.8%	94.9%	−6.1 pp	1.13
Barcelona not to score	11.2%	5.1%	+6.1 pp	8.93
Rayo Vallecano to score	60.3%	48.5%	+11.8 pp	1.66
Rayo Vallecano not to score	39.7%	51.5%	−11.8 pp	2.52
Both teams to score	55.0%	48.0%	+7.0 pp	1.82
Both teams not to score	45.0%	52.0%	−7.0 pp	2.22
Barcelona 2+ goals	62.3%	82.8%	−20.5 pp	1.61
Barcelona at most 1 goal	37.7%	17.2%	+20.5 pp	2.65
Rayo Vallecano 2+ goals	20.7%	15.8%	+4.9 pp	4.83
Rayo Vallecano at most 1 goal	79.3%	84.2%	−4.9 pp	1.26
Over 1.5 goals	82.0%	89.4%	−7.4 pp	1.22
Under 1.5 goals	18.0%	10.6%	+7.4 pp	5.55
Over 2.5 goals	56.6%	76.2%	−19.5 pp	1.77
Under 2.5 goals	43.4%	23.8%	+19.5 pp	2.31

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Barcelona sample: 20 matches
Rayo Vallecano sample: 20 matches
Computed: 11 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 11 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.