Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 20:00
28d 19h to kick-offLevante UD – Atlético Madrid
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Levante UD
- 35%
- Draw
- 30%
- Atlético Madrid
- 35%
| Levante UD | Draw | Atlético Madrid | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.83 | 3.37 | 2.86 |
- Total goals
- 2.83
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score
- 63%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
35% Levante UD to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 4th
- Levante UD attack v Atlético Madrid defence
- Defence
- 18th vs 3rd
- Levante UD defence v Atlético Madrid attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.75 vs +0.69
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.42 – 1.41
- Levante UD v Atlético Madrid
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Levante UD | Atlético Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.33 · 8th | (better) 1.72 · 4th |
| xGA / match | 2.08 · 19th | (better) 1.02 · 1st |
| xGD / match | -0.75 · 16th | (better) +0.70 · 4th |
| xPts / match | 1.04 · 17th | (better) 1.86 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.75 | (better) +0.69 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Levante UD clean sheet
- 22%
- Levante UD 2+ goals
- 43%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 45%
- Both teams to score: no
- 37%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.7%
- 2:1
- 9.7%
- 1:2
- 9.6%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Levante UD sample
- 20 matches
- Atlético Madrid sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Levante UD
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Atlético Madrid
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.