Málaga 0:0 Levante UD: xG & match report · La Liga

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 18:30

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Match report · La Liga

Málaga Home 1.46 xG · 10 shots

Levante UD Away 0.81 xG · 11 shots

00 Málaga had the better chances, but it finished level

Málaga were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was Levante UD's attack: 0.81 xG against 1.20 projected (−0.39).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Málaga: 39%
Draw: 31% What happened
Levante UD: 30%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Málaga 1.39 1.46 +0.07

Levante UD 1.20 0.81 -0.39

Levante UD produced 0.39 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Málaga Levante UD

Shots: 10; 11
On target: 3; 3
Inside the box: 7; 5
xG per shot: 0.15; 0.08
Open play xG: 0.47; 0.48
Set-piece xG: 0.19; 0.35
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.68 for Málaga and 0.81 for Levante UD.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

21 shots · 2.31 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Málaga
Levante UD
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Málaga

0.94 xG created 1.55 xGA

L 0.15 created, 0.92 conceded against Atlético Madrid
D 1.95 created, 1.12 conceded against Deportivo La Coruña
L 0.71 created, 2.62 conceded against Real Madrid

Levante UD

1.75 xG created 1.36 xGA

W 1.52 created, 2.18 conceded against Celta Vigo
W 2.39 created, 0.30 conceded against Mallorca
L 2.28 created, 1.51 conceded against Real Betis
L 0.28 created, 1.55 conceded against Espanyol
D 1.28 created, 0.70 conceded against Osasuna
W 2.76 created, 1.92 conceded against Real Betis

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

1 opportunity flagged1 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Málaga against Levante UD before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.25	+0.5%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Málaga	39.3%	39.6%	−0.4 pp	2.55
Draw	30.9%	29.0%	+2.0 pp	3.23
Levante UD	29.8%	31.4%	−1.6 pp	3.35

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	58.6%	54.7%	+3.9 pp	1.71
Both teams not to score	41.4%	45.3%	−3.9 pp	2.41
Over 1.5 goals	77.5%	74.5%	+3.0 pp	1.29
Under 1.5 goals	22.5%	25.5%	−3.0 pp	4.44
Over 2.5 goals	49.2%	50.0%	−0.8 pp	2.03
Under 2.5 goals	50.8%	50.0%	+0.8 pp	1.97

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Málaga sample: 3 matches
Levante UD sample: 20 matches
Computed: 4 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 4 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Málaga has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.