Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Rayo Vallecano – Real Madrid
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Rayo Vallecano
- 32%
- Draw
- 29%
- Real Madrid
- 39%
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Real Madrid | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.14 | 3.46 | 2.55 |
- Total goals
- 2.93
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score
- 65%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Real Madrid
39% Real Madrid to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 10th
- Real Madrid attack v Rayo Vallecano defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 8th
- Real Madrid defence v Rayo Vallecano attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.53 vs -0.53
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.38 – 1.54
- Rayo Vallecano v Real Madrid
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Rayo Vallecano | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.27 · 10th | (better) 2.64 · 2nd |
| xGA / match | 1.76 · 16th | (better) 1.09 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | -0.50 · 13th | (better) +1.55 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 1.12 · 16th | (better) 2.27 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.53 | (better) +1.53 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Real Madrid clean sheet
- 22%
- Real Madrid 2+ goals
- 47%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score: no
- 35%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.1%
- 1:2
- 10.2%
- 2:1
- 9.0%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Rayo Vallecano sample
- 20 matches
- Real Madrid sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Rayo Vallecano
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Real Madrid
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.