Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 18:30
21d 14h to kick-offReal Sociedad – Levante UD
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Real Sociedad
- 37%
- Draw
- 29%
- Levante UD
- 34%
| Real Sociedad | Draw | Levante UD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.73 | 3.41 | 2.94 |
- Total goals
- 2.88
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57%
- Both teams to score
- 64%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
37% Real Sociedad to win
- Attack
- 11th vs 18th
- Real Sociedad attack v Levante UD defence
- Defence
- 19th vs 6th
- Real Sociedad defence v Levante UD attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.60 vs -0.75
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.47 – 1.41
- Real Sociedad v Levante UD
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Real Sociedad | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.19 · 14th | (better) 1.33 · 8th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.68 · 15th | 2.08 · 19th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.50 · 14th | -0.75 · 16th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.17 · 12th | 1.04 · 17th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.60 | -0.75 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Real Sociedad clean sheet
- 22%
- Real Sociedad 2+ goals
- 44%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Both teams to score: no
- 36%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.3%
- 2:1
- 9.8%
- 1:2
- 9.4%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Real Sociedad sample
- 20 matches
- Levante UD sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Real Sociedad
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Levante UD
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.