Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 20:00
17d 17h to kick-offLevante UD – Athletic Club
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Levante UD
- 32%
- Draw
- 31%
- Athletic Club
- 37%
| Levante UD | Draw | Athletic Club | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.16 | 3.18 | 2.71 |
- Total goals
- 2.54
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Athletic Club
37% Athletic Club to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 18th
- Athletic Club attack v Levante UD defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 6th
- Athletic Club defence v Levante UD attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.28 vs -0.75
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.21 – 1.32
- Levante UD v Athletic Club
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Levante UD | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.33 · 8th | (better) 1.64 · 5th |
| xGA / match | 2.08 · 19th | (better) 1.36 · 10th |
| xGD / match | -0.75 · 16th | (better) +0.28 · 5th |
| xPts / match | 1.04 · 17th | (better) 1.82 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.75 | (better) +0.28 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Athletic Club clean sheet
- 27%
- Athletic Club 2+ goals
- 39%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.1%
- 1:2
- 9.8%
- 2:1
- 8.9%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Levante UD sample
- 20 matches
- Athletic Club sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Levante UD
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Athletic Club
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.