Real Sociedad 0:0 Celta Vigo: xG & match report · La Liga

Thursday, 03/09/2026 at 21:00

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Match report · La Liga

Real Sociedad Home 1.05 xG · 16 shots

Celta Vigo Away 0.43 xG · 7 shots

00 Real Sociedad had the better chances, but it finished level

Real Sociedad were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was Celta Vigo's attack: 0.43 xG against 0.98 projected (−0.55). Real Sociedad produced 1.05 xG against 1.44 projected (−0.39).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Real Sociedad: 46%
Draw: 31% What happened
Celta Vigo: 23%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Real Sociedad 1.44 1.05 -0.39

Celta Vigo 0.98 0.43 -0.55

Celta Vigo produced 0.55 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Real Sociedad Celta Vigo

Shots: 16; 7
On target: 5; 2
Inside the box: 6; 3
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.05
Open play xG: 0.89; 0.36
Set-piece xG: 0.15; 0.00
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.03 for Real Sociedad and 0.37 for Celta Vigo.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

23 shots · 1.40 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Real Sociedad
Celta Vigo
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Real Sociedad

1.11 xG created 1.91 xGA

D 0.33 created, 2.11 conceded against Girona FC
L 1.15 created, 1.67 conceded against Valencia
D 1.40 created, 2.41 conceded against Espanyol
L 1.36 created, 1.24 conceded against Real Betis
L 0.57 created, 3.14 conceded against Real Madrid
W 1.82 created, 0.91 conceded against Espanyol

Celta Vigo

0.91 xG created 1.80 xGA

L 2.18 created, 1.52 conceded against Levante UD
D 0.15 created, 2.49 conceded against Athletic Club
W 1.59 created, 0.80 conceded against Sevilla
D 0.66 created, 0.58 conceded against Valencia
L 0.14 created, 2.60 conceded against Osasuna
L 0.75 created, 2.78 conceded against Athletic Club

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Real Sociedad: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged3 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Real Sociedad against Celta Vigo before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.70	+14.6%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	1.91	+6.0%	Won
Real Sociedad at most 1 goal	1.83	+3.9%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Real Sociedad	46.1%	50.6%	−4.5 pp	2.17
Draw	31.0%	26.0%	+5.0 pp	3.23
Celta Vigo	22.9%	23.4%	−0.5 pp	4.36

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Real Sociedad to score	78.9%	79.2%	−0.3 pp	1.27
Real Sociedad not to score	21.1%	20.8%	+0.3 pp	4.73
Celta Vigo to score	65.4%	64.5%	+0.9 pp	1.53
Celta Vigo not to score	34.6%	35.5%	−0.9 pp	2.89
Both teams to score	53.4%	53.3%	+0.1 pp	1.87
Both teams not to score	46.6%	46.7%	−0.1 pp	2.15
Real Sociedad 2+ goals	43.3%	50.0%	−6.7 pp	2.31
Real Sociedad at most 1 goal	56.7%	50.0%	+6.7 pp	1.76
Celta Vigo 2+ goals	25.7%	29.1%	−3.4 pp	3.89
Celta Vigo at most 1 goal	74.3%	70.9%	+3.4 pp	1.35
Over 1.5 goals	73.8%	74.5%	−0.6 pp	1.35
Under 1.5 goals	26.2%	25.5%	+0.6 pp	3.82
Over 2.5 goals	44.5%	50.0%	−5.5 pp	2.25
Under 2.5 goals	55.5%	50.0%	+5.5 pp	1.80

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Real Sociedad sample: 20 matches
Celta Vigo sample: 20 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.