Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 21:00
11d 21h to kick-offValencia – Athletic Club
Model updated 5 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Valencia
- 26%
- Draw
- 33%
- Athletic Club
- 41%
| Valencia | Draw | Athletic Club | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.84 | 3.07 | 2.42 |
- Total goals
- 2.30
- Over 2.5 goals
- 41%
- Both teams to score
- 52%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Athletic Club
41% Athletic Club to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 15th
- Athletic Club attack v Valencia defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 13th
- Athletic Club defence v Valencia attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.28 vs -0.89
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.00 – 1.30
- Valencia v Athletic Club
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Valencia | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.87 · 18th | (better) 1.64 · 5th |
| xGA / match | 1.64 · 13th | (better) 1.36 · 10th |
| xGD / match | -0.78 · 19th | (better) +0.28 · 5th |
| xPts / match | 0.91 · 19th | (better) 1.82 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.89 | (better) +0.28 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 38% of the model's distribution.
- Athletic Club clean sheet
- 34%
- Athletic Club 2+ goals
- 38%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Both teams to score: no
- 48%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.7%
- 0:1
- 10.7%
- 0:0
- 10.3%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Valencia sample
- 20 matches
- Athletic Club sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Valencia
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Athletic Club
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.