Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 19:00
Full timeCasa Pia 1:4 FC Porto
FC Porto were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. They won 4–1. The biggest difference was FC Porto's attack: 2.60 xG against 1.40 projected (+1.20). Casa Pia produced 1.59 xG against 0.89 projected (+0.70).
Goals
- 43' Henrique Araújo (pen.) Casa Pia · 0.82 xG chance 1–0
- 45' André Silva FC Porto · 0.31 xG chance 1–1
- 60' Jakub Kiwior FC Porto · 0.26 xG chance 1–2
- 66' Borja Sainz FC Porto · 0.14 xG chance 1–3
- 90' Santiago Giménez (pen.) FC Porto · 0.82 xG chance 1–4
The model against the result
- Casa Pia
- 21%
- Draw
- 32%
- FC Porto
- 48% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FC Porto produced 1.20 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 15
- 17
- On target
- 5
- 4
- Inside the box
- 6
- 12
- xG per shot
- 0.11
- 0.15
- Open play xG
- 0.75
- 0.39
- Set-piece xG
- 0.07
- 1.36
- Penalties
- 1
- 1
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.80 for Casa Pia and 1.75 for FC Porto.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
32 shots · 4.21 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Casa Pia
- FC Porto
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
9 opportunities flagged2 won7 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia to win | 11.00 | +128.9% | Lost |
| FC Porto not to score | 10.00 | +117.4% | Lost |
| Draw | 6.50 | +105.3% | Lost |
| FC Porto at most 1 goal | 3.25 | +88.2% | Lost |
| Casa Pia 2+ goals | 8.00 | +75.7% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.30 | +36.0% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 4.50 | +30.0% | Lost |
| Casa Pia to score | 2.10 | +29.9% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 2.25 | +13.1% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | 20.8% | 8.6% | +12.3 pp | 4.81 |
| Draw | 31.6% | 14.5% | +17.1 pp | 3.17 |
| FC Porto | 47.6% | 77.0% | −29.4 pp | 2.10 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia to score | 61.8% | 44.3% | +17.6 pp | 1.62 |
| Casa Pia not to score | 38.2% | 55.7% | −17.6 pp | 2.62 |
| FC Porto to score | 78.3% | 90.4% | −12.1 pp | 1.28 |
| FC Porto not to score | 21.7% | 9.6% | +12.1 pp | 4.60 |
| Both teams to score | 50.3% | 41.1% | +9.2 pp | 1.99 |
| Both teams not to score | 49.7% | 58.9% | −9.2 pp | 2.01 |
| Casa Pia 2+ goals | 22.0% | 11.9% | +10.0 pp | 4.55 |
| Casa Pia at most 1 goal | 78.0% | 88.1% | −10.0 pp | 1.28 |
| FC Porto 2+ goals | 42.1% | 70.9% | −28.8 pp | 2.38 |
| FC Porto at most 1 goal | 57.9% | 29.1% | +28.8 pp | 1.73 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.1% | 79.2% | −8.1 pp | 1.41 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28.9% | 20.8% | +8.1 pp | 3.46 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.8% | 59.0% | −18.1 pp | 2.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 59.2% | 41.0% | +18.1 pp | 1.69 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Casa Pia sample
- 20 matches
- FC Porto sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 4 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 4 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.