Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 12:00
26d 18h to kick-offCasa Pia – Sporting
Model updated 5 October, 18:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Casa Pia
- 18%
- Draw
- 31%
- Sporting
- 51%
| Casa Pia | Draw | Sporting | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 5.43 | 3.27 | 1.96 |
- Total goals
- 2.31
- Over 2.5 goals
- 41%
- Both teams to score
- 49%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Sporting
51% Sporting to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 13th
- Sporting attack v Casa Pia defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 16th
- Sporting defence v Casa Pia attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.16 vs -0.91
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 0.84 – 1.47
- Casa Pia v Sporting
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Casa Pia | Sporting |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.89 · 15th | (better) 2.01 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | 1.77 · 16th | (better) 0.79 · 5th |
| xGD / match | -0.87 · 16th | (better) +1.22 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 0.91 · 15th | (better) 2.17 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.91 | (better) +1.16 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 39% of the model's distribution.
- Sporting clean sheet
- 41%
- Sporting 2+ goals
- 45%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Both teams to score: no
- 51%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.7%
- 0:1
- 12.4%
- 0:2
- 11.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Casa Pia sample
- 20 matches
- Sporting sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Casa Pia
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Sporting
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 18:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.