Estoril Praia 1:2 Casa Pia: xG & match report · Liga Portugal

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · Liga Portugal

Estoril Praia Home 0.95 xG · 14 shots

Casa Pia Away 2.17 xG · 11 shots

12 The scoreline reflected the chances

Estoril Praia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. Casa Pia won 2–1. The biggest difference was Casa Pia's attack: 2.17 xG against 0.99 projected (+1.18). Estoril Praia produced 0.95 xG against 1.29 projected (−0.34).

Goals

70' Ricard Sánchez Estoril Praia · 0.21 xG chance 1–0
72' Selvi Clúa Casa Pia · 0.10 xG chance 1–1
89' Benjamin Pauwels Casa Pia · 0.04 xG chance 1–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Estoril Praia: 41%
Draw: 33%
Casa Pia: 26% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Estoril Praia 1.29 0.95 -0.34

Casa Pia 0.99 2.17 +1.18

Casa Pia produced 1.18 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Estoril Praia Casa Pia

Shots: 14; 11
On target: 6; 2
Inside the box: 7; 7
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.20
Open play xG: 0.73; 1.03
Set-piece xG: 0.22; 0.31
Penalties: 0; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.38 for Casa Pia.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

25 shots · 3.11 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Estoril Praia
Casa Pia
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Estoril Praia

0.84 xG created 1.52 xGA

D 1.06 created, 1.47 conceded against Famalicão
L 0.82 created, 2.08 conceded against CD Nacional
L 1.16 created, 0.70 conceded against Rio Ave
L 0.36 created, 2.03 conceded against Benfica
D 0.86 created, 1.07 conceded against FC Arouca
L 0.75 created, 1.79 conceded against Sporting Braga

Casa Pia

0.68 xG created 1.90 xGA

L 0.64 created, 1.28 conceded against Marítimo
L 0.12 created, 3.04 conceded against Benfica
L 0.76 created, 1.74 conceded against Gil Vicente
L 0.77 created, 0.28 conceded against Moreirense
D 0.21 created, 2.48 conceded against Vitória SC
L 1.59 created, 2.60 conceded against FC Porto

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Estoril Praia: 0 won · 2 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged1 won3 lost

Won
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Estoril Praia against Casa Pia before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Casa Pia to win	4.75	+23.3%	Won
Draw	3.60	+17.8%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	1.90	+13.1%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	3.75	+9.8%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Estoril Praia	41.3%	54.3%	−12.9 pp	2.42
Draw	32.7%	26.0%	+6.7 pp	3.06
Casa Pia	26.0%	19.7%	+6.2 pp	3.85

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	51.3%	52.0%	−0.7 pp	1.95
Both teams not to score	48.7%	48.0%	+0.7 pp	2.05
Over 1.5 goals	70.7%	75.0%	−4.3 pp	1.41
Under 1.5 goals	29.3%	25.0%	+4.3 pp	3.41
Over 2.5 goals	40.5%	50.0%	−9.5 pp	2.47
Under 2.5 goals	59.5%	50.0%	+9.5 pp	1.68

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Estoril Praia sample: 20 matches
Casa Pia sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.