Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 19:00
34d 15h to kick-offFC Alverca – Casa Pia
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC Alverca
- 48%
- Draw
- 31%
- Casa Pia
- 21%
| FC Alverca | Draw | Casa Pia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.10 | 3.23 | 4.67 |
- Total goals
- 2.39
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FC Alverca
48% FC Alverca to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 13th
- FC Alverca attack v Casa Pia defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 16th
- FC Alverca defence v Casa Pia attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.25 vs -0.91
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.46 – 0.94
- FC Alverca v Casa Pia
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Alverca | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.40 · 5th | 0.89 · 15th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.74 · 15th | 1.77 · 16th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.34 · 10th | -0.87 · 16th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.06 · 14th | 0.91 · 15th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.25 | -0.91 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 38% of the model's distribution.
- FC Alverca clean sheet
- 36%
- FC Alverca 2+ goals
- 44%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.0%
- 1:0
- 10.9%
- 2:1
- 10.9%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Alverca sample
- 20 matches
- Casa Pia sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Alverca
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Casa Pia
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.