Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 19:00
Full timeFC Alverca 1:0 Rio Ave
FC Alverca were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was FC Alverca's attack: 3.30 xG against 1.39 projected (+1.91). Rio Ave produced 0.29 xG against 0.93 projected (−0.64).
Goals
- 3' Dawda Camara FC Alverca · 0.91 xG chance 1–0
The model against the result
- FC Alverca
- 46% What happened
- Draw
- 32%
- Rio Ave
- 22%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FC Alverca produced 1.91 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 23
- 6
- On target
- 6
- 3
- Inside the box
- 16
- 1
- xG per shot
- 0.14
- 0.05
- Open play xG
- 2.83
- 0.26
- Set-piece xG
- 0.46
- 0.02
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 3.30 for FC Alverca and 0.29 for Rio Ave.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
29 shots · 3.57 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- FC Alverca
- Rio Ave
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.08 xG created 1.98 xGA
- L 1.66 created, 2.59 conceded against FC Porto
- D 1.75 created, 1.29 conceded against CF Estrela Amadora
- L 0.41 created, 2.12 conceded against Sporting
- D 0.41 created, 1.41 conceded against Santa Clara
- L 1.08 created, 2.27 conceded against Sporting Braga
- W 1.16 created, 2.20 conceded against CD Nacional
0.58 xG created 1.69 xGA
- L 0.19 created, 1.66 conceded against Gil Vicente
- L 0.58 created, 1.97 conceded against FC Porto
- W 0.70 created, 1.16 conceded against Estoril Praia
- L 0.47 created, 1.66 conceded against Sporting
- L 0.32 created, 1.80 conceded against Santa Clara
- D 1.23 created, 1.87 conceded against CF Estrela Amadora
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.50 | +11.4% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.85 | +8.2% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Alverca | 46.0% | 48.3% | −2.3 pp | 2.17 |
| Draw | 31.8% | 26.9% | +4.9 pp | 3.14 |
| Rio Ave | 22.2% | 24.8% | −2.6 pp | 4.50 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | 52.0% | −0.6 pp | 1.95 |
| Both teams not to score | 48.6% | 48.0% | +0.6 pp | 2.06 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.7% | 73.1% | −1.4 pp | 1.39 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28.3% | 26.9% | +1.4 pp | 3.53 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.5% | 48.7% | −7.2 pp | 2.41 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58.5% | 51.3% | +7.2 pp | 1.71 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Alverca sample
- 20 matches
- Rio Ave sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 10 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 10 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.