Moreirense 3:1 Marítimo: xG & match report · Liga Portugal

Monday, 14/09/2026 at 21:15

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Match report · Liga Portugal

Moreirense Home 2.00 xG · 11 shots

Marítimo Away 0.76 xG · 9 shots

31 The scoreline reflected the chances

Marítimo were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. Moreirense won 3–1. The biggest difference was Moreirense's attack: 2.00 xG against 0.87 projected (+1.13). Marítimo produced 0.76 xG against 1.08 projected (−0.32).

Goals

17' Manuel Mendonça Moreirense · 0.26 xG chance 1–0
28' Leonardo Vonić Moreirense · 0.26 xG chance 2–0
79' Romain Correia Marítimo · 0.17 xG chance 2–1
86' Alexandre Parsemain (pen.) Moreirense · 0.82 xG chance 3–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Moreirense: 26% What happened
Draw: 36%
Marítimo: 38%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Moreirense 0.87 2.00 +1.13

Marítimo 1.08 0.76 -0.32

Moreirense produced 1.13 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Moreirense Marítimo

Shots: 11; 9
On target: 4; 2
Inside the box: 7; 6
xG per shot: 0.19; 0.08
Open play xG: 0.43; 0.15
Set-piece xG: 0.79; 0.58
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.21 for Moreirense and 0.76 for Marítimo.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

20 shots · 2.77 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Moreirense
Marítimo
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Moreirense

0.53 xG created 2.06 xGA

D 0.96 created, 2.03 conceded against AVS - Futebol SAD
D 0.21 created, 1.50 conceded against Sporting Braga
L 0.49 created, 2.14 conceded against FC Arouca
W 0.28 created, 0.77 conceded against Casa Pia
L 0.85 created, 2.90 conceded against FC Porto
L 0.39 created, 2.99 conceded against Benfica

Marítimo

0.99 xG created 1.21 xGA

W 1.28 created, 0.64 conceded against Casa Pia
W 1.61 created, 0.59 conceded against Famalicão
D 1.28 created, 1.84 conceded against Académico Viseu FC
L 0.67 created, 1.65 conceded against FC Arouca
L 0.12 created, 1.31 conceded against Benfica

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged0 won7 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Moreirense against Marítimo before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Moreirense not to score	3.00	+17.6%	Lost
Draw	3.20	+14.5%	Lost
Moreirense at most 1 goal	1.44	+14.0%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	1.62	+11.9%	Lost
Marítimo to win	2.80	+6.9%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	2.75	+4.1%	Lost
Both teams not to score	1.80	+0.7%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Moreirense	26.0%	36.9%	−10.9 pp	3.84
Draw	35.8%	29.4%	+6.4 pp	2.79
Marítimo	38.2%	33.6%	+4.5 pp	2.62

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Moreirense to score	60.8%	68.7%	−8.0 pp	1.65
Moreirense not to score	39.2%	31.3%	+8.0 pp	2.55
Marítimo to score	69.1%	66.3%	+2.8 pp	1.45
Marítimo not to score	30.9%	33.7%	−2.8 pp	3.24
Both teams to score	44.0%	48.0%	−4.0 pp	2.27
Both teams not to score	56.0%	52.0%	+4.0 pp	1.79
Moreirense 2+ goals	21.1%	35.5%	−14.4 pp	4.75
Moreirense at most 1 goal	78.9%	64.5%	+14.4 pp	1.27
Marítimo 2+ goals	29.6%	31.3%	−1.7 pp	3.38
Marítimo at most 1 goal	70.4%	68.7%	+1.7 pp	1.42
Over 1.5 goals	62.1%	66.3%	−4.1 pp	1.61
Under 1.5 goals	37.9%	33.7%	+4.1 pp	2.64
Over 2.5 goals	30.7%	41.8%	−11.1 pp	3.25
Under 2.5 goals	69.3%	58.2%	+11.1 pp	1.44

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Moreirense sample: 20 matches
Marítimo sample: 5 matches
Computed: 12 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 12 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Marítimo has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.