Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 20:45
Full timeAS Monaco 2:0 Olympique de Marseille
AS Monaco were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was AS Monaco's attack: 1.72 xG against 1.38 projected (+0.34).
Goals
- 13' Paris Brunner AS Monaco · 0.26 xG chance 1–0
- 53' Paris Brunner AS Monaco · 0.59 xG chance 2–0
The model against the result
- AS Monaco
- 35% What happened
- Draw
- 30%
- Olympique de Marseille
- 35%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
AS Monaco produced 0.34 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 11
- 13
- On target
- 5
- 2
- Inside the box
- 7
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.09
- Open play xG
- 1.19
- 1.06
- Set-piece xG
- 0.28
- 0.13
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.49 for AS Monaco and 1.22 for Olympique de Marseille.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
24 shots · 2.66 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- AS Monaco
- Olympique de Marseille
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.19 xG created 1.02 xGA
1.89 xG created 1.67 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged1 won3 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.70 | +11.6% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.30 | +11.6% | Won |
| AS Monaco at most 1 goal | 1.80 | +6.1% | Lost |
| AS Monaco not to score | 4.33 | +1.0% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Monaco | 35.3% | 43.0% | −7.6 pp | 2.83 |
| Draw | 30.2% | 25.5% | +4.6 pp | 3.31 |
| Olympique de Marseille | 34.5% | 31.5% | +3.0 pp | 2.90 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Monaco to score | 77.5% | 78.3% | −0.8 pp | 1.29 |
| AS Monaco not to score | 22.5% | 21.7% | +0.8 pp | 4.45 |
| Olympique de Marseille to score | 77.1% | 76.6% | +0.5 pp | 1.30 |
| Olympique de Marseille not to score | 22.9% | 23.4% | −0.5 pp | 4.37 |
| Both teams to score | 61.5% | 62.5% | −1.0 pp | 1.62 |
| Both teams not to score | 38.5% | 37.5% | +1.0 pp | 2.60 |
| AS Monaco 2+ goals | 41.1% | 48.5% | −7.5 pp | 2.44 |
| AS Monaco at most 1 goal | 58.9% | 51.5% | +7.5 pp | 1.70 |
| Olympique de Marseille 2+ goals | 40.5% | 44.3% | −3.8 pp | 2.47 |
| Olympique de Marseille at most 1 goal | 59.5% | 55.7% | +3.8 pp | 1.68 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.0% | 78.9% | +1.1 pp | 1.25 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.0% | 21.1% | −1.1 pp | 5.01 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.0% | 58.7% | −5.7 pp | 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.0% | 41.3% | +5.7 pp | 2.13 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- AS Monaco sample
- 20 matches
- Olympique de Marseille sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 10 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.