Paris Saint-Germain 3:1 Toulouse: xG & match report · Ligue 1

Friday, 03/04/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Ligue 1

Paris Saint-Germain Home 1.79 xG · 17 shots

Toulouse Away 0.16 xG · 5 shots

31 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

23' Ousmane Dembélé Paris Saint-Germain · 0.05 xG chance 1–0
27' Rasmus Nicolaisen Toulouse · 0.04 xG chance 1–1
33' Ousmane Dembélé Paris Saint-Germain · 0.87 xG chance 2–1
90' Gonçalo Ramos Paris Saint-Germain · 0.04 xG chance 3–1

The shots behind it

Paris Saint-Germain Toulouse

Shots: 17; 5
On target: 7; 1
Inside the box: 9; 1
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.03
Open play xG: 0.50; 0.09
Set-piece xG: 1.31; 0.07
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.82 for Paris Saint-Germain.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

22 shots · 1.97 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Paris Saint-Germain
Toulouse
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Paris Saint-Germain

3.10 xG created 0.73 xGA

W 4.14 created, 0.66 conceded against Olympique de Marseille
L 3.62 created, 1.36 conceded against Stade Rennais
W 2.13 created, 0.08 conceded against Metz
W 3.88 created, 0.67 conceded against Le Havre
L 1.09 created, 1.34 conceded against AS Monaco
W 3.71 created, 0.24 conceded against Nice

Toulouse

1.58 xG created 1.01 xGA

L 2.57 created, 1.16 conceded against Le Havre
D 2.89 created, 0.82 conceded against Paris FC
L 0.49 created, 0.92 conceded against Stade Rennais
L 0.98 created, 1.09 conceded against Olympique de Marseille
W 1.42 created, 1.65 conceded against Metz
W 1.15 created, 0.40 conceded against Lorient

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Paris Saint-Germain: 1 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Toulouse 3:6 Paris Saint-Germain 30/08/2025 xG 2.22 – 2.62

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.