Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Stade Brestois – Paris FC
Model updated 4 October, 06:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Stade Brestois
- 40%
- Draw
- 32%
- Paris FC
- 28%
| Stade Brestois | Draw | Paris FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.50 | 3.13 | 3.56 |
- Total goals
- 2.43
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45%
- Both teams to score
- 55%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Stade Brestois
40% Stade Brestois to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 3rd
- Stade Brestois attack v Paris FC defence
- Defence
- 7th vs 11th
- Stade Brestois defence v Paris FC attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.78 vs +1.28
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.33 – 1.10
- Stade Brestois v Paris FC
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Stade Brestois | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.94 · 4th | 1.87 · 5th |
| xGA / match | 1.19 · 4th | (better) 0.65 · 1st |
| xGD / match | +0.75 · 3rd | (better) +1.22 · 1st |
| xPts / match | 1.78 · 4th | (better) 2.17 · 1st |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.78 | (better) +1.28 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- Stade Brestois clean sheet
- 30%
- Stade Brestois 2+ goals
- 39%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score: no
- 45%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.5%
- 2:1
- 10.1%
- 1:0
- 9.3%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Stade Brestois sample
- 20 matches
- Paris FC sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Stade Brestois
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Paris FC
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 06:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.