Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 20:45
20d 17h to kick-offRC Lens – Paris FC
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- RC Lens
- 48%
- Draw
- 28%
- Paris FC
- 24%
| RC Lens | Draw | Paris FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.09 | 3.52 | 4.20 |
- Total goals
- 2.82
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score
- 61%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans RC Lens
48% RC Lens to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 3rd
- RC Lens attack v Paris FC defence
- Defence
- 8th vs 11th
- RC Lens defence v Paris FC attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.23 vs +1.28
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.66 – 1.16
- RC Lens v Paris FC
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | RC Lens | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.27 · 2nd | 1.87 · 5th |
| xGA / match | 1.92 · 13th | (better) 0.65 · 1st |
| xGD / match | +0.35 · 6th | (better) +1.22 · 1st |
| xPts / match | 1.49 · 6th | (better) 2.17 · 1st |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.23 | (better) +1.28 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- RC Lens clean sheet
- 29%
- RC Lens 2+ goals
- 51%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 45%
- Both teams to score: no
- 39%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.1%
- 2:1
- 11.1%
- 2:0
- 8.2%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- RC Lens sample
- 20 matches
- Paris FC sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · RC Lens
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Paris FC
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.