Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 18:45
32d 20h to kick-offKisvárda FC – Puskás Akadémia
Model updated 5 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Kisvárda FC
- 30%
- Draw
- 26%
- Puskás Akadémia
- 44%
| Kisvárda FC | Draw | Puskás Akadémia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.35 | 3.81 | 2.28 |
- Total goals
- 3.36
- Over 2.5 goals
- 68%
- Both teams to score
- 71%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Puskás Akadémia
44% Puskás Akadémia to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 10th
- Puskás Akadémia attack v Kisvárda FC defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 12th
- Puskás Akadémia defence v Kisvárda FC attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.62 vs -0.89
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.52 – 1.84
- Kisvárda FC v Puskás Akadémia
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Kisvárda FC | Puskás Akadémia |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.39 · 10th | (better) 2.21 · 5th |
| xGA / match | 2.28 · 10th | (better) 1.73 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | -0.89 · 11th | (better) +0.48 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 0.98 · 10th | (better) 1.65 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.89 | (better) +0.62 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- Puskás Akadémia clean sheet
- 19%
- Puskás Akadémia 2+ goals
- 57%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 32%
- Both teams to score: no
- 29%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.5%
- 1:2
- 10.1%
- 2:1
- 8.2%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Kisvárda FC sample
- 20 matches
- Puskás Akadémia sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Kisvárda FC
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Puskás Akadémia
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.