Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 15:30
32d 19h to kick-offMFK Skalica – MŠK Žilina
Model updated 5 October, 18:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- MFK Skalica
- 31%
- Draw
- 28%
- MŠK Žilina
- 41%
| MFK Skalica | Draw | MŠK Žilina | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.20 | 3.55 | 2.47 |
- Total goals
- 3.04
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60%
- Both teams to score
- 67%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans MŠK Žilina
41% MŠK Žilina to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 10th
- MŠK Žilina attack v MFK Skalica defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 12th
- MŠK Žilina defence v MFK Skalica attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.15 vs -0.71
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.42 – 1.62
- MFK Skalica v MŠK Žilina
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | MFK Skalica | MŠK Žilina |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.28 · 10th | (better) 1.88 · 4th |
| xGA / match | 1.98 · 8th | (better) 1.44 · 5th |
| xGD / match | -0.71 · 9th | (better) +0.45 · 4th |
| xPts / match | 0.98 · 10th | (better) 1.64 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.71 | (better) +0.15 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- MŠK Žilina clean sheet
- 21%
- MŠK Žilina 2+ goals
- 50%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 40%
- Both teams to score: no
- 33%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.4%
- 1:2
- 10.2%
- 2:1
- 8.9%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- MFK Skalica sample
- 20 matches
- MŠK Žilina sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · MFK Skalica
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · MŠK Žilina
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 18:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.