Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 15:30
26d 18h to kick-offMFK Ružomberok – MFK Skalica
Model updated 5 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- MFK Ružomberok
- 50%
- Draw
- 27%
- MFK Skalica
- 23%
| MFK Ružomberok | Draw | MFK Skalica | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.98 | 3.71 | 4.43 |
- Total goals
- 3.00
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60%
- Both teams to score
- 64%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans MFK Ružomberok
50% MFK Ružomberok to win
- Attack
- 9th vs 10th
- MFK Ružomberok attack v MFK Skalica defence
- Defence
- 7th vs 12th
- MFK Ružomberok defence v MFK Skalica attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.09 vs -0.71
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.80 – 1.20
- MFK Ružomberok v MFK Skalica
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | MFK Ružomberok | MFK Skalica |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.78 · 5th | 1.28 · 10th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.84 · 7th | 1.98 · 8th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.06 · 6th | -0.71 · 9th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.38 · 6th | 0.98 · 10th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.09 | -0.71 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- MFK Ružomberok clean sheet
- 27%
- MFK Ružomberok 2+ goals
- 56%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 40%
- Both teams to score: no
- 36%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.1%
- 2:1
- 11.3%
- 2:0
- 8.0%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- MFK Ružomberok sample
- 20 matches
- MFK Skalica sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · MFK Ružomberok
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · MFK Skalica
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.