Friday, 02/10/2026 at 20:45
Kicked offDundalk FC – Bohemian FC
Model updated 1 October, 10:25 Best odds updated 1 October, 10:23
What the model expects
- Dundalk FC
- 32%
- Draw
- 26%
- Bohemian FC
- 41%
| Dundalk FC | Draw | Bohemian FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.09 | 3.79 | 2.42 |
- Total goals
- 3.37
- Over 2.5 goals
- 68%
- Both teams to score
- 71%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 4 outcomes.
-
Dundalk FC
- Model
- 32.3%
- Market, margin removed
- 27.1%
- Probability gap
- +5.2 pp
- Edge
- +10.0%
- Fair odds
- 3.09
- Market odds
- 3.40 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.25
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.5%
-
Draw
- Model
- 26.4%
- Market, margin removed
- 25.6%
- Probability gap
- +0.8 pp
- Edge
- −5.0%
- Fair odds
- 3.79
- Market odds
- 3.60 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.98
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.5%
-
Bohemian FC
- Model
- 41.3%
- Market, margin removed
- 47.3%
- Probability gap
- −6.0 pp
- Edge
- −19.5%
- Fair odds
- 2.42
- Market odds
- 1.95 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.54
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.5%
Outcomes with value
Dundalk FC to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Over 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Over 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Best opportunity
Dundalk FC to win
Model 32.3% vs. bookmaker 27.1%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Bohemian FC
41% Bohemian FC to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 8th
- Bohemian FC attack v Dundalk FC defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 4th
- Bohemian FC defence v Dundalk FC attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.95 vs -0.59
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.58 – 1.78
- Dundalk FC v Bohemian FC
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Dundalk FC | Bohemian FC |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.58 · 3rd | (better) 1.63 · 2nd |
| xGA / match | 1.57 · 7th | (better) 1.10 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | +0.01 · 5th | (better) +0.53 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 1.37 · 6th | (better) 1.75 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.59 | (better) +0.95 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- Bohemian FC clean sheet
- 18%
- Bohemian FC 2+ goals
- 55%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 32%
- Both teams to score: no
- 29%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.5%
- 1:2
- 9.8%
- 2:1
- 8.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Dundalk FC sample
- 20 matches
- Bohemian FC sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Dundalk FC
- 15 matches
- Away xG sample · Bohemian FC
- 14 matches
- Computed
- Thursday, 01/10/2026 at 10:25
- Odds updated
- 2 days ago · over a day old
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.