Waterford FC 1:1 Dundalk FC: xG & match report · Premier Division (Ireland)

Friday, 11/09/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Premier Division (Ireland)

Waterford FC Home 2.04 xG

Dundalk FC Away 0.55 xG

11 Waterford FC had the better chances, but it finished level

Waterford FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Dundalk FC's attack: 0.55 xG against 1.80 projected (−1.25).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Waterford FC: 41%
Draw: 25% What happened
Dundalk FC: 35%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Waterford FC 1.95 2.04 +0.09

Dundalk FC 1.80 0.55 -1.25

Dundalk FC produced 1.25 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Waterford FC Dundalk FC

Shots: 17; 10
On target: 8; 2
Inside the box: 17; 3
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.06

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Waterford FC

1.54 xG created 1.40 xGA

D 1.43 created, 2.55 conceded against St. Patrick's Athletic
D 0.62 created, 1.27 conceded against Galway United
W 1.67 created, 1.47 conceded against Shelbourne
W 1.66 created, 1.04 conceded against Bohemian FC
D 1.59 created, 0.66 conceded against Sligo Rovers
W 2.27 created, 1.42 conceded against St. Patrick's Athletic

Dundalk FC

1.93 xG created 1.65 xGA

L 1.44 created, 1.25 conceded against Drogheda United
D 1.43 created, 1.98 conceded against St. Patrick's Athletic
D 1.74 created, 1.35 conceded against Sligo Rovers
L 1.72 created, 2.66 conceded against Shamrock Rovers
L 2.21 created, 0.79 conceded against Galway United
W 3.04 created, 1.89 conceded against Drogheda United

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Waterford FC: 1 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged4 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Waterford FC against Dundalk FC before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	1.67	+24.4%	Lost
Waterford FC 2+ goals	1.91	+14.8%	Lost
Dundalk FC 2+ goals	2.00	+11.5%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.44	+10.5%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.20	+10.1%	Won
Waterford FC to score	1.20	+5.5%	Won
Dundalk FC to score	1.22	+4.9%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Waterford FC	40.7%	38.4%	+2.3 pp	2.45
Draw	24.7%	26.8%	−2.1 pp	4.04
Dundalk FC	34.5%	34.8%	−0.2 pp	2.90

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Waterford FC to score	87.9%	78.3%	+9.6 pp	1.14
Waterford FC not to score	12.1%	21.7%	−9.6 pp	8.26
Dundalk FC to score	85.8%	76.6%	+9.2 pp	1.17
Dundalk FC not to score	14.2%	23.4%	−9.2 pp	7.05
Both teams to score	76.5%	64.5%	+12.0 pp	1.31
Both teams not to score	23.5%	35.5%	−12.0 pp	4.26
Waterford FC 2+ goals	60.1%	48.5%	+11.6 pp	1.66
Waterford FC at most 1 goal	39.9%	51.5%	−11.6 pp	2.51
Dundalk FC 2+ goals	55.7%	46.3%	+9.4 pp	1.79
Dundalk FC at most 1 goal	44.3%	53.7%	−9.4 pp	2.26
Over 1.5 goals	91.8%	78.3%	+13.5 pp	1.09
Under 1.5 goals	8.2%	21.7%	−13.5 pp	12.18
Over 2.5 goals	74.7%	56.3%	+18.3 pp	1.34
Under 2.5 goals	25.3%	43.7%	−18.3 pp	3.94

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Waterford FC sample: 20 matches
Dundalk FC sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.