Monday, 14/09/2026 at 20:45
Full timeDundalk FC 0:4 St. Patrick's Athletic
Dundalk FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. St. Patrick's Athletic won 4–0. The biggest difference was St. Patrick's Athletic's attack: 2.94 xG against 1.57 projected (+1.37). Dundalk FC produced 0.26 xG against 1.61 projected (−1.35).
The model against the result
- Dundalk FC
- 37%
- Draw
- 28%
- St. Patrick's Athletic
- 35% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
St. Patrick's Athletic produced 1.37 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 7
- 16
- On target
- 1
- 8
- Inside the box
- 2
- 10
- xG per shot
- 0.04
- 0.18
Recent form
1.78 xG created 1.79 xGA
- D 1.43 created, 1.98 conceded against St. Patrick's Athletic
- D 1.74 created, 1.35 conceded against Sligo Rovers
- L 1.72 created, 2.66 conceded against Shamrock Rovers
- L 2.21 created, 0.79 conceded against Galway United
- W 3.04 created, 1.89 conceded against Drogheda United
- D 0.55 created, 2.04 conceded against Waterford FC
1.85 xG created 1.10 xGA
- D 1.98 created, 1.43 conceded against Dundalk FC
- D 1.67 created, 0.50 conceded against Derry City
- W 3.15 created, 1.12 conceded against Shelbourne
- W 1.83 created, 0.39 conceded against Drogheda United
- L 1.42 created, 2.27 conceded against Waterford FC
- W 1.03 created, 0.89 conceded against Shamrock Rovers
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged2 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dundalk FC 2+ goals | 2.63 | +29.7% | Lost |
| Dundalk FC to win | 3.10 | +15.0% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | +11.4% | Lost |
| Dundalk FC to score | 1.33 | +10.0% | Lost |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | +8.2% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | +3.7% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundalk FC | 37.1% | 29.4% | +7.7 pp | 2.69 |
| Draw | 27.6% | 26.1% | +1.5 pp | 3.63 |
| St. Patrick's Athletic | 35.3% | 44.5% | −9.2 pp | 2.83 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundalk FC to score | 82.5% | 70.9% | +11.6 pp | 1.21 |
| Dundalk FC not to score | 17.5% | 29.1% | −11.6 pp | 5.71 |
| St. Patrick's Athletic to score | 81.9% | 78.3% | +3.6 pp | 1.22 |
| St. Patrick's Athletic not to score | 18.1% | 21.7% | −3.6 pp | 5.52 |
| Both teams to score | 69.0% | 57.7% | +11.3 pp | 1.45 |
| Both teams not to score | 31.0% | 42.3% | −11.3 pp | 3.23 |
| Dundalk FC 2+ goals | 49.4% | 35.5% | +13.9 pp | 2.02 |
| Dundalk FC at most 1 goal | 50.6% | 64.5% | −13.9 pp | 1.98 |
| St. Patrick's Athletic 2+ goals | 48.1% | 48.5% | −0.4 pp | 2.08 |
| St. Patrick's Athletic at most 1 goal | 51.9% | 51.5% | +0.4 pp | 1.93 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.4% | 78.3% | +8.1 pp | 1.16 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 13.6% | 21.7% | −8.1 pp | 7.34 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.7% | 55.3% | +8.4 pp | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.3% | 44.7% | −8.4 pp | 2.75 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Dundalk FC sample
- 20 matches
- St. Patrick's Athletic sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 12 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 12 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.